By the end of 2016, will negotiations begin between Catalonia and Spain regarding Catalan independence?
Yes: 20%
(If Catalonia unilaterally secedes or declares independence, this question will close for yes. Negotiations between Catalonia and Spain not regarding independence will not be sufficient to close this question)
Catalan separatists recently won regional elections that were widely viewed as a referendum on Catalan separatism (see story here). The main separatist party, Together for Yes, had vowed before the election to immediately begin negotiations with the central Spanish government over independence. In any case, they plan to unilaterally declare independence within 18 months. The current Spanish government seems to be resolutely opposed to Catalan independence, and unwilling to enter into any negotiations. The government's view might change after the national elections in December, although all of the major parties seem to be opposed to Catalan independence.
Given the opposition of the central government, it seems unlikely that any Catalan independence negotiations will actually take place. The most likely outcome is that the Catalan government will back down in its demands, in exchange for some form of regional autonomy.
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