What will the difference be between the national Conservative vote total and the final poll average at threehundredeight.com?
Greater than 2%: 35%
Between 0% and 2%: 30%
Between -2% and 0%: 20%
Less than -2%: 15%
(A positive difference means that the Conservatives have outperformed the poll average. The final poll average is the one that takes into account all polling done before election day, but does not take into account exit polling or actual returns.)
The vote total for the conservative party has been somewhat underestimated in some recent elections (the most notable being the recent UK election). In the past 4 Canadian elections, the Conservative vote total has been underestimated by 2.5% (2011), 2.9% (2008). -0.8% (2006), and -0.9% (2004). The errors in the 2008 and 2011 elections were much larger than the statistically calculated error.
Results in previous years suggest that the final poll average is likely to underestimate the Conservative vote total, possibly substantially. However, this might not happen to the extent that it has happened in previous elections.
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