Friday, 2 October 2015

Questions Resolved in September: Part 2


  • Next Greek Election Date has resolved for "Yes", because of the legislative Greek Election held in September.  I said that there was a 65% chance of another election in 2015.
  • Simcoe North By-election Result has resolved for "Patrick Brown", whom I said had a 90% chance of winning.  This estimate might have been too low, given how good of a position Brown was in.
  • September Greek Election has resolved for "SYRIZA", whom I said had a 65% chance of winning.  I think these odds were about right, given the somewhat inconsistent polling before the election
  • Trudeau Munk Debate has resolved for "Yes", because Justin Trudeau ultimately decided to attend the Munk Debate.  I said this had a 80% chance of happening.
  • Burkina Faso Coup has resolved for "Yes", as the coup leaders have surrendered.  This question had almost resolved by the time I posted it, so my 85% for estimate for "Yes" might have been too low.

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