Saturday, 4 April 2015

Mosul Control

Q88: When will the Islamic State lose control of Mosul?
Before June 1st: 20%
Between June 1st and August 31st: 20%
Between September 1st and December 31st: 20%
After December 31st: 40%
(Control of the city centre is what counts for this question.)

Now that ISIS has lost control of Tikrit, the next major target for anti-ISIS forces seems to be Mosul. In late February, the US indicated a April-May timeline for the attack on Mosul to begin, although this may have be pushed back.  A Yahoo News article talks about a campaign against Mosul starting in weeks.

I think that Mosul will probably be captured sometime this year, with a median time somewhere in the fall.  Given that it took a month to capture Tikrit, it is quite unlikely that Mosul will be captured before June 1st.

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