Friday, 10 April 2015

Alberta Election

Q92: What will be the result of the upcoming Alberta provincial election?
PC Minority: 35%
PC Majority: 20%
Wildrose Minority: 25%
Wildrose Majority: 15%
NDP Minority/Majority: 5%
(Definition note: For the context of this question, a minority for a party means that the party has the plurality of seats in the legislature after the election, but not the majority of seats.  Such a party will likely, but is not certain to, form a minority government.)

An Alberta legislative election has been called for May 5th (see Wikipedia article here).  According to current polls, summarized at threehundredeight.com, the Wildrose are leading with about 30% of the vote, the PCs have 27%, the NDP are at 24%, and the Liberals are at 10%.  However, the PCs seem to be projected to win more seats than the Wildrose party.

Given the PCs organizational and incumbent advantages, and given that they are favored in threehundredeight projection, I think they are more likely than the Wildrose Party to win the most seats.  The NDP could win the most seats, but this would require them to gain a significant amount of ground in the polls.

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