TFSA Limit Contraction

Q104: By the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it will decrease the annual contribution limit for TFSAs from $10,000?

Yes: 20%

(The decrease does not have to be for the 2016 tax year; a later year is fine.  Changes in the TFSA rules that do not affect the annual contribution limit do not count.  An ending of the TFSA program would count)

The latest Conservative budget almost doubled the annual TFSA contribution limit to $10,000, as widely expected (see my post here).   According to a recent Ottawa Citizen article about the increase, "if the Liberals form the government after the next election, they would reverse the near doubling of the tax-free savings account limit because it helps wealthy Canadians the most."  The NDP are also opposed to the limit increase.

According to my latest estimates, there is about a 50% chance of a Liberal or NDP government after the next election.  However, I don't think a TFSA contribution reduction is a sure thing even if the Liberals are elected; it would annoy many people who planned to take advantage of the increased contribution room.