- Q38 (Zehaf-Bibeau Video) has resolved as yes because most of the video has been released. I said this has a 57% chance of happening.
- Q46 (Future Shop/Best Buy Ottawa) has resolved as yes, because several Future Shops in Ottawa have closed (and the rest have turned into Best Buys). I said this had a 20% chance of happening.
- Q59 (York Tunnel) has resolved, as the tunnel has been revealed to be for a non-criminal purpose. I said this had a 15% chance of happening.
- Q66 (Tikrit Control) has resolved as half yes, half no. Unfortunately for this question, Tikrit was in a somewhat ambiguous state on March 31 at 23:59 EDT. As an Al Jazeera article explains, "A major military push saw Iraqi police and allied forces retake the city centre on Tuesday (March 31) but pockets of jihadist militants remained." The presidential palace was not captured until April 2nd. There seems to have been conflicting information about exactly what the status of Tikrit was on March 31. In light of this ambiguity, I will resolve the question as half yes and half no. I had said that there was a 85% chance that Tikrit would be captured by the end of March, which was probably too high.
- Q88 (Andreas Lubitz's motive) has resolved as "Before the end of March". Since I created the question, there has been numerous announcements that point to suicide (see here, for example). I said that there was a 30% chance that this question would resolve so soon.
I didn't do too well on questions resolving in March.
No comments:
Post a Comment