Sunday, 12 April 2015

Federal Coalition Government

Q94: Will the next federal government be a coalition government?
Yes: 10%
(A yes answer requires that the government have cabinet ministers belonging to at least two different parties.  MPs who cross the floor to join the government would not count)

Given the likelihood that no single party will win a majority of the seats after the next federal election, there has been some speculation that a coalition government will be formed between multiple parties to form a majority.  The most discussed possibility is a Liberal-NDP coalition, although other parties are also discussed.  The NDP have indicated that they are open to a coalition, while the Liberals have said that they are opposed.

A coalition is highly unlikely if a single party forms a minority, which I said had a 25% chance of happening.  A Liberal-NDP coalition is also unlikely if there is a strong Conservative minority (because it wouldn't necessarily have the majority of the seats) or a Liberal minority (as the Liberals wouldn't have to be in a coalition to form the government).  A weak Conservative (or NDP) minority is probably the situation most likely to lead to a coalition.  This is what current projections suggest will happen.  Coalitions have been relatively uncommon in Canadian history, especially recent Canadian history (the last coalition was formed during World War I, and even this might not have counted according to my definition).  Indeed, coalitions are seen as somewhat unacceptable in a Canadian context.  However, a coalition after the next UK election might change that perception.

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