Questions Resolved in January and February

Looking back on January and February, the following questions have resolved:

• Q4 (Sri Lankan Presidential Election) has resolved for Maithripala Sirisena, whom I said had a 70% chance of winning.
• Q5 (Greek Legislative Election) has resolved for SYRIZA, whom I said had a 80% chance of winning.
• For Q13 (Supreme Court Assisted Suicide), the Supreme Court has overturned the current law on assisted suicide, which I said had a 50% chance of happening.  The decision was unanimous.  This seems like the obvious decision in hindsight, but news coverage of the case did not suggest a particular outcome was more likely.  This may be for legal reasons.
• Q37 (Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister) has resolved for Rob Nicholson, whom I said had a 5% chance of winning.  This is better than it seems, because I had 9 candidates with a 5% chance of winning.  In the future, I am going to restrict questions to 5 options; the 14 options for this question were way too many.  This sort of question is probably best approached by grouping candidates in some logical way (perhaps by geographic region).
• For Q40 (845 Carling Approval), the development proposal for 845 Carling was approved by the planning committee unanimously.  I said there was an 80% chance of approval.  In hindsight, I may have been a bit under-confident; the local councillor and the planning department both approved of this proposal.
• For Q43 (Ukrainian Ceasefire), the ceasefire has not been substantially respected; the fighting in Debaltseve was a violation.  I said that the ceasefire had a 80% of being violated.  This might have also been under-confident.