Wednesday, 4 March 2015

Finnish Election

Q63: What party will win the most seats in the next Finnish election?
National Coalition Party: 12%
Social Democratic Party: 12%
Finns Party: 5%
Centre Party: 70%
Someone Other Party: 1%

Finland will be holding a parliamentary election on April 19.  The current government is a coalition composed of the National Coalition Party, the Social Democratic Party, and two smaller parties.  In current polling, the Centre Part is leading with around 26% of the vote, the National Coalition and   Social Democratic parties are tied with about 17% of the vote each, and the Finns Party is fourth with about  Finland uses a mixed form of proportional representation, so the party with the largest vote total is very likely to have the most seats.

Given the Centre Party's lead, I would estimate that the National Coalition and Social Democratic Parties each have about a 12% chance of winning.  The Finns Party, given their lower polling numbers and more focussed appeal, probably have about 5% chance of winning.  The Centre Party has about a 70% chance of winning, while the other parties are very unlikely to win.

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