Showing posts with label Northern Europe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Northern Europe. Show all posts

Saturday, 14 March 2015

Danish Election

Q73: Which party will win the most seats in the next Danish Parliamentary Election?
Venstre: 40%
Social Democrats: 35%
Danish People's Party: 23%
Some Other Party: 2%

The next Danish parliamentary election will take place sometime before September 14.  According to current polls, the centre-right Venstre Party and centre-left Social Democrats are tied with about 23% of the vote each (Venestre averages a slightly higher percentage), while the right-wing populist Danish People's Party has about 21% of the vote.  All other parties have less than 10% of the vote.

Based on those numbers, I think that any of the three of the main parties could reasonably win.  Venestre and the Social Democrats are almost equally likely to win, while the Danish People Party are less likely to win.

Wednesday, 4 March 2015

Finnish Election

Q63: What party will win the most seats in the next Finnish election?
National Coalition Party: 12%
Social Democratic Party: 12%
Finns Party: 5%
Centre Party: 70%
Someone Other Party: 1%

Finland will be holding a parliamentary election on April 19.  The current government is a coalition composed of the National Coalition Party, the Social Democratic Party, and two smaller parties.  In current polling, the Centre Part is leading with around 26% of the vote, the National Coalition and   Social Democratic parties are tied with about 17% of the vote each, and the Finns Party is fourth with about  Finland uses a mixed form of proportional representation, so the party with the largest vote total is very likely to have the most seats.

Given the Centre Party's lead, I would estimate that the National Coalition and Social Democratic Parties each have about a 12% chance of winning.  The Finns Party, given their lower polling numbers and more focussed appeal, probably have about 5% chance of winning.  The Centre Party has about a 70% chance of winning, while the other parties are very unlikely to win.