Argentinan Election

Q60: Who will win the next Argentinian Presidential Election?
Daniel Scioli: 45%
Sergio Massa: 25%
Mauricio Macri: 15%
Someone Else: 15%

Argentina will be holding a 2-round presidential election in October of this year (see the Wikipedia article).  The slate of candidates is not completely clear.  The incumbent, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, is ineligible to run again (although some have suggested that this rule be changed).  Her party, the Front for Victory, will probably nominate Daniel Scioli.  Sergio Massa is a likely opposition candidate who recently left the ruling party.  Mauricio Macri is another center-right opposition candidate.

Recent polls have Scioli with an average of 26% of the vote, Massa with 24%, and Macri with 22% (other potential candidates are well back).  These polls were taken before the recent protests over the suspicious death of Prosecutor Alberto Nisman, which might hurt Scioli and help the opposition candidates (see the article here).  Still, I think that Scioli is the most likely winner, as he is leading in the polls and has the advantage of incumbency.  Argentina has had a Kirchener President since 2003.  Again based on the polls, Massa is probably the second most likely candidate to win, with Macri third.