Before the end of August 2017, will another referendum be announced on the UK leaving the EU?
Yes: 15%
There has been some speculation that another Brexit referendum might be held, likely after negotiations have led to some new deal (see article here). My sense is that this is possible, but unlikely, especially in the short time frame of this question.
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
Monday, 27 June 2016
Sunday, 10 April 2016
EU Visa Requirements
Before the end of March 2017, will the European Union require Canadians to have a visa to travel to the EU?
Yes: 15%
(The requirements have to actually be in place by the end of March 2017. If a visa requirement is imposed and later rescinded, that counts for this question.)
There seems to be some suggestion that the EU might force Canadians to apply for a visa when travelling to the EU (see articles here and here). The main issue seems to be that Canada requires visas for Romanians and Bulgarians. The impression I get from both articles is that a visa requirement is unlikely to be imposed, because it would cut into tourism. As well, even if a requirement is imposed, it sounds like it would take a long time; the CBC article mentions "late 2016 or early 2017" as the earliest a visa requirement could be imposed.
Yes: 15%
(The requirements have to actually be in place by the end of March 2017. If a visa requirement is imposed and later rescinded, that counts for this question.)
There seems to be some suggestion that the EU might force Canadians to apply for a visa when travelling to the EU (see articles here and here). The main issue seems to be that Canada requires visas for Romanians and Bulgarians. The impression I get from both articles is that a visa requirement is unlikely to be imposed, because it would cut into tourism. As well, even if a requirement is imposed, it sounds like it would take a long time; the CBC article mentions "late 2016 or early 2017" as the earliest a visa requirement could be imposed.
Friday, 27 November 2015
Salah Abdeslam Apprehension
When will Salah Abdeslam be apprehended by the authorities?
Before December 5th: 30%
Between December 5th and the end of December: 30%
Not before the end of December: 40%
(If Salah Abdeslam dies, that counts as a apprehension, as long as the authorities are in possession of his body. This question will be based on local time in the country of apprehension)
Salah Abdeslam is a key suspect in the November 13th Paris attacks (see article here). A manhunt for him in Belgium seems to have failed to find him so far, and the authorities do not seem terribly close to finding him. I think the most likely outcome is that he will not be found before the end of the year, but it is possible that he could be found in the next week, or later in December.
Before December 5th: 30%
Between December 5th and the end of December: 30%
Not before the end of December: 40%
(If Salah Abdeslam dies, that counts as a apprehension, as long as the authorities are in possession of his body. This question will be based on local time in the country of apprehension)
Salah Abdeslam is a key suspect in the November 13th Paris attacks (see article here). A manhunt for him in Belgium seems to have failed to find him so far, and the authorities do not seem terribly close to finding him. I think the most likely outcome is that he will not be found before the end of the year, but it is possible that he could be found in the next week, or later in December.
Thursday, 26 November 2015
Paris Climate Deal Binding
Will the Paris climate talks result in a legally binding agreement including the US?
Yes: 20%
(If the talks fail to reach any agreement by the end of 2015, the question will resolve as "No" . The deal does not need to be approved by all countries, and does not need to receive legislative approval for a "Yes")
There seems to be some debate over whether the proposed Paris climate deal will be legally binding (see article here). The EU seems to be pushing for the deal to be legally binding, while the US is opposed to a legally binding treaty. The Kyoto Protocol was legally binding (although the US did not agree to it) , while the Copenhagen Accord was not legally binding. My guess is that the Paris talks will not result in a legally binding agreement, as US opposition to such an agreement seems to be considerable.
Yes: 20%
(If the talks fail to reach any agreement by the end of 2015, the question will resolve as "No" . The deal does not need to be approved by all countries, and does not need to receive legislative approval for a "Yes")
There seems to be some debate over whether the proposed Paris climate deal will be legally binding (see article here). The EU seems to be pushing for the deal to be legally binding, while the US is opposed to a legally binding treaty. The Kyoto Protocol was legally binding (although the US did not agree to it) , while the Copenhagen Accord was not legally binding. My guess is that the Paris talks will not result in a legally binding agreement, as US opposition to such an agreement seems to be considerable.
Monday, 23 November 2015
Islamist Terrorism in the EU
Before the end of 2015, will there be another lethal Islamist terrorist attack in the EU?
Yes: 25%
(To count, the attack must result in the death of at least 3 people, not including the perpetrators)
There seems to be some fear of other terrorist attacks after the recent attack in Paris (see article here). The statistical base rate of such attacks is rather low; there have been 3 such attacks in the last 2 years, corresponding to a 14% base rate estimate before the end of the year (see Wikipedia article here). Longer time periods yield even lower estimates. Still, I think the recent attack in Paris does increase the odds slightly over the base rate.
Yes: 25%
(To count, the attack must result in the death of at least 3 people, not including the perpetrators)
There seems to be some fear of other terrorist attacks after the recent attack in Paris (see article here). The statistical base rate of such attacks is rather low; there have been 3 such attacks in the last 2 years, corresponding to a 14% base rate estimate before the end of the year (see Wikipedia article here). Longer time periods yield even lower estimates. Still, I think the recent attack in Paris does increase the odds slightly over the base rate.
Monday, 31 August 2015
Portuguese Prime Minister
Which party will the prime minister of Portugal belong to after the election on October 4th?
Portugal Ahead: 15%
Socialist Party: 80%
Some Other Party: 3%
No Stable Coalition will be Formed: 2%
Because of the potential for coalitions in Portuguese politics, the party that wins the highest percentage of the vote may not be the party that ultimately forms the government. As I noted in an earlier post, the Socialist Party is currently leading slightly in the polls (their lead of about 2% hasn't changed since my last post). However, even if they don't get the highest percentage of the vote, they are likely to form the government. Almost all of the minor parties in Portugal seem to be left-wing, and thus better potential coalition partners with the Socialist Party then with the right-wing Portugal Ahead. Portugal Ahead would have to win almost a majority of the seats to be assured of forming the government. Given that they are presently at about 35% of the vote, this is a difficult task.
Portugal Ahead: 15%
Socialist Party: 80%
Some Other Party: 3%
No Stable Coalition will be Formed: 2%
Because of the potential for coalitions in Portuguese politics, the party that wins the highest percentage of the vote may not be the party that ultimately forms the government. As I noted in an earlier post, the Socialist Party is currently leading slightly in the polls (their lead of about 2% hasn't changed since my last post). However, even if they don't get the highest percentage of the vote, they are likely to form the government. Almost all of the minor parties in Portugal seem to be left-wing, and thus better potential coalition partners with the Socialist Party then with the right-wing Portugal Ahead. Portugal Ahead would have to win almost a majority of the seats to be assured of forming the government. Given that they are presently at about 35% of the vote, this is a difficult task.
Sunday, 30 August 2015
September Greek Election
Which party will get the highest percentage of the vote in the Greek legislative election scheduled for September 20th?
SYRIZA: 65%
New Democracy: 30%
Some Other Party: 5%
A snap Greek legislative election is to be held on September 20th. Current polls (summarized here) suggest that SYRIZA, the current governing party, has about a 3% lead over New Democracy, the main opposition party (the other parties are well back). Given that lead, SYRIZA is the most likely winner of the election. However, given the volatility of Greek politics, it is quite possible that New Democracy, or even some third party, could end up winning.
SYRIZA: 65%
New Democracy: 30%
Some Other Party: 5%
A snap Greek legislative election is to be held on September 20th. Current polls (summarized here) suggest that SYRIZA, the current governing party, has about a 3% lead over New Democracy, the main opposition party (the other parties are well back). Given that lead, SYRIZA is the most likely winner of the election. However, given the volatility of Greek politics, it is quite possible that New Democracy, or even some third party, could end up winning.
Friday, 6 March 2015
EU Russian Sanctions
Q65: By the end of July, will the EU
Impose additional sanctions on Russia: 30%
Extend the current sanctions: 50%
Loosen current sanctions or allow them to expire: 20%
(If the EU either imposes additional sanctions or loosens them, that will immediately cause this question to resolve. For instance, if the EU imposes additional sanctions but later cancels them, the question will resolve as "impose additional sanctions". If sanctions are allowed to expire but then reapplied, the question will resolve as "Loosen current sanctions or allow them to expire")
EU foreign ministers are currently considering whether to extend current sanctions on Russia (the current sanctions expire in July), due to the crisis in Ukraine. Based on sentiment at those meetings, it seems that the current sanctions on Russia are likely to be extended. According to the EU foreign policy chief "They will not be lifted until something really good happens on the ground and on the other side we are always ready to increase the pressure if needed".
As mentioned in the above quote, additional sanctions might also be applied. I don't think this is likely to happen unless Russia escalates the conflict. According to a recent Deutsche Welle article, "EU not in a hurry to introduce further sanctions against Russia".
Impose additional sanctions on Russia: 30%
Extend the current sanctions: 50%
Loosen current sanctions or allow them to expire: 20%
(If the EU either imposes additional sanctions or loosens them, that will immediately cause this question to resolve. For instance, if the EU imposes additional sanctions but later cancels them, the question will resolve as "impose additional sanctions". If sanctions are allowed to expire but then reapplied, the question will resolve as "Loosen current sanctions or allow them to expire")
EU foreign ministers are currently considering whether to extend current sanctions on Russia (the current sanctions expire in July), due to the crisis in Ukraine. Based on sentiment at those meetings, it seems that the current sanctions on Russia are likely to be extended. According to the EU foreign policy chief "They will not be lifted until something really good happens on the ground and on the other side we are always ready to increase the pressure if needed".
As mentioned in the above quote, additional sanctions might also be applied. I don't think this is likely to happen unless Russia escalates the conflict. According to a recent Deutsche Welle article, "EU not in a hurry to introduce further sanctions against Russia".
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)