EU Russian Sanctions

Q65: By the end of July, will the EU
Impose additional sanctions on Russia: 30%
Extend the current sanctions: 50%
Loosen current sanctions or allow them to expire: 20%
(If the EU either imposes additional sanctions or loosens them, that will immediately cause this question to resolve.  For instance, if the EU imposes additional sanctions but later cancels them, the question will resolve as "impose additional sanctions".  If sanctions are allowed to expire but then reapplied, the question will resolve as "Loosen current sanctions or allow them to expire")

EU foreign ministers are currently considering whether to extend current sanctions on Russia (the current sanctions expire in July), due to the crisis in Ukraine.  Based on sentiment at those meetings, it seems that the current sanctions on Russia are likely to be extended.  According to the EU foreign policy chief "They will not be lifted until something really good happens on the ground and on the other side we are always ready to increase the pressure if needed".

As mentioned in the above quote, additional sanctions might also be applied.  I don't think this is likely to happen unless Russia escalates the conflict.  According to a recent Deutsche Welle article, "EU not in a hurry to introduce further sanctions against Russia".

Debaltseve Control

Q52: By the end of 2015, who will control Debaltseve?
Ukraine: 20%
Donetsk Rebels or Russia: 77%
Someone else: 3%
(Definition note: Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control.   "Someone else" covers contingencies such as UN control)

The Ukrainian city of Debaltseve was recently captured by rebel forces, after intense fighting (see the Wikipedia article here).  The city originally came under rebel control in April 2014, but Ukrainian troops re-captured it in late July 2014.

Like the Donetsk Airport, I think that Debaltseve will remain in rebel hands through the end of 2015.  It is probably slightly less likely to be captured than the Donetsk airport, as it is in a more favourable geographic position (see the map here) and time has passed since I made that prediction.

Ukrainian Ceasefire

Q43: Will the Ukrainian ceasefire agreed to on February 12, 2015 be substantially respected by both parties before May 1st, 2015?
Yes: 20%
No: 80%
(Minor violations will not count.  The ceasefire is all that matters for this question; the rest of the agreement is not relevant)

In the Minsk agreement reached today, the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian rebels agreed to a ceasefire starting on February 15.  A previous ceasefire in September failed to stop the fighting.  There seems to be substantial skepticism that today's agreement will be honored from the White House and other sources.  It seems that there is still substantial fighting going on, which is not a good sign.

I think that it is rather unlikely that the current ceasefire will work; there seem to be few signs that it will.  It does not seem very different from the failed September ceasefire.

Mariupol Control

Q34: By the end of 2015, who will control Mariupol?
Ukraine: 85%
Donetsk Rebels or Russia: 13%
Someone else: 2%
(Definition note: Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control.  If Mariupol is in control of officially recognized Russian forces, this question will resolve as "Rebels or Russia".  Mariupol in this question refers to the city centre.  "Someone else" covers contingencies such as UN control)

The Ukrainian city of Mariupol was recently shelled by rebel forces.  It is currently controlled by Ukrainian forces, although it is close to rebel-controlled areas.  There has been some speculation that it might be attacked by the rebels in an attempt to create a land bridge between Russia and Crimea.

I think that Mariupol will stay in Ukrainian hands.  Capturing it would be very difficult; according to the source above, it would " involve urban warfare on a scale unprecedented in the conflict".  Also, it is unlikely to be ceded by Ukraine in any sort of diplomatic solution.

Donetsk Airport

Q29: By the end of 2015, who will control the Donetsk airport?
Ukraine: 25%
Donetsk Rebels or Russia: 70%
Someone else: 5%
(Definition note: Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control.  If the airport is in control of officially recognized Russian forces, this question will resolve as "Rebels or Russia".  "Someone else" covers contingencies such as UN control)

The Donetsk airport is on the front lines in the current fight between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian rebels (map here).  It has great symbolic value to both sides.  The airport was recently captured by rebel forces.

I think the airport will remain in rebel hands for the remainder of 2015.  Recapture by Ukrainian forces is possible, but difficult.  The airport might return to Ukrainian hands via diplomatic means, but diplomacy takes time.