September Greek Election

Which party will get the highest percentage of the vote in the Greek legislative election scheduled for September 20th?
SYRIZA: 65%
New Democracy: 30%
Some Other Party: 5%

A snap Greek legislative election is to be held on September 20th.  Current polls (summarized here) suggest that SYRIZA, the current governing party, has about a 3% lead over New Democracy, the main opposition party (the other parties are well back).  Given that lead, SYRIZA is the most likely winner of the election.  However, given the volatility of Greek politics, it is quite possible that New Democracy, or even some third party, could end up winning.

Greek Banks

Q167: When will Greek banks re-open?
Before July 6th: 20%
On July 6th: 50%
After July 6th: 30%
(A substantial number of banks must re-open to trigger this question)

In the context of the uncertainty associated with the Greek bailout negotiations, the Greek government has decided to close banks this week (see article here), although this could be extended  Banks are scheduled to be re-opened on July 6th.  Greece may be forced to default on an IMF payment on June 30th, and is scheduled to hold a referendum on the last creditors' proposal on July 5th.

I think that banks will probably re-open on the scheduled date.  If they do not, they are more likely to be closed for a longer period of time than a shorter period.  It is possible that they will re-open early if the crisis is solved.

Greek Referendum

Q165: What will be the result of the proposed Greek referendum on the bailout proposal?
The Creditors' Proposal will be Approved: 20%
The Creditors' Proposal will not be Approved: 30%
No referendum will be held before the end of July: 50%
(A referendum on a slightly different proposal would count.  A general election would not count)

The Greek government has called a referendum on the latest bailout proposal on July 5th (see article here).  The government is recommending that the bailout proposal be rejected, although voters might not follow this suggestion.   There seems to be considerable doubt about whether a referendum can be held on such short notice, as well as whether the proposal will still be available when the referendum is held.   There was an unrealized threat of a referendum on a previous referendum proposal in 2011.  The Greek parliament has approved the referendum (see article here).

The situation seems very uncertain and fluid.  I think that the most likely outcome is that no referendum will be held, either because negotiations will continue and succeed, or because the proposal to be voted on is no longer available or relevant.  It seems that Greece will have to default on its IMF payment on June 30th, which might well make the referendum irrelevant.  If a referendum is held, it could go either way, but voters are probably slightly more likely to reject the proposal.

Greek Bailout

Q163: When will a deal be reached regarding the release of further bailout funds to Greece?
On or before June 30th: 40%
In the month of July: 20%
Not before August: 40%
(The deal does not have to have been ratified by the parliaments of the countries involved)

There have been continuing talks regarding the release of further bailout funds to Greece (see sample article here).  Greece's creditors are demanding further austerity measures in return for more funds.  Negotiations do not seem to be doing well.  There seems to be a deadline of June 30th for the talks, as a Greek payment to the IMF is due on that day.  The IMF has indicated that it is not willing to extend the deadline.

I am very uncertain about what will happen here.  The most likely outcomes are probably that a deal will be reached before the deadline, or the deadline will be extended beyond the end of June (and probably July too).  It is also possible that Greece will simply default on the IMF payment, or something more complex than any of the above scenarios will happen.  I am giving the most non-committal odds I can.

Greek Legislative Election

Q5: Which party will win the most seats in the Greek Legislative Election on January 25, 2015?
New Democracy (ND): 20%
Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA): 80%

SYRIZA, an anti-austerity party, is currently leading in the polls by about 5% to ND, the incumbent party.  Greece has a proportional representation system, so the party with the most votes will have the most seats (although there are also bonus seats for the party with the most votes).

Based on data in Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise (pg. 63), a senate candidate with a 5% lead in the polls with a month to the election has a 81% chance of winning.  This would suggest that SYRIZA has a 80% or so chance of winning, which I think is reasonable.