Post-Mortem: Miscellaneous

• The City of Ottawa has asked the province for permission to use photo radar (see my post Photo Radar Ottawa).  In March, I said there was only a 30% chance that this would happen, which I think might have been a reasonable estimate, given the opposition to the idea at the time.
• Construction has started on the Mooney's Bay Playground.  I said there was an 85% chance that this would happen in 2016, which was a good estimate.
• The City of Toronto has passed a taxi reform bylaw (see my post Toronto Taxi Reform).  In April, I said there was a 30% chance that this would happen, which might have been a slight underestimate.
• The M3MSat Launch has taken place.  Last July, I said there was a 70% chance it would be launched before the end of 2016.
• Certain New Brunswick Liquor Limits were found to be unconstitutional.  I said there was a 20% chance that this would happen, which might have been too low.

Hugo Award Best Novel 2015

What book will win the 2015 Hugo Award for best novel?
Ancillary Sword: 30%
The Goblin Emperor: 20%
The Three-Body Problem: 15%
Another Book: 20%
No Award: 15%

There has been some controversy this year over the Hugo Awards, a set of science fiction and fantasy awards, due to the somewhat successful attempts of two conservative groups to nominate slates of candidates. Two of the nominees for best novel (Skin Game and The Dark Between the Stars) seem to belong to those slates.  There seems to have been a strong negative reaction to these efforts, with some planning to vote for "No Award" instead of some or all of the nominees.  See the post here for more details.

My impression is that Ancillary Sword, which seems to be the strongest of the non-slate books, will probably win.  A "No Award" outcome is possible but fairly unlikely, as is a victory for one of the slate books.  The other two non-slate books could also win.