Liberal Membership Fees

Before the end of June 2016, will the federal Liberal Party decide to abolish membership fees?

Yes: 90%

The Liberals are currently considering abolishing membership fees (see article here).  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expressed support for the change, as has the national board of the Liberal Party.  However, the proposal still needs to receive approval from the party at large in its May convention.  This seems like it should be a formality.

Canada Interest Rate May

What will be the result of the May 25th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 5%
Unchanged Rate: 85%
Rate Increase: 10%

The Bank of Canada declined to change interest rates at its April meeting (see article here).  The expectation seems to be that the rate will continue to be unchanged for the near future.  If the Bank does change the rate, it seems that a rate hike is more likely than a rate cut (see article here).

Electoral Reform Committee

When will the federal government create a electoral reform committee?
Before the end of June 2016: 45%
Between July and December 2016: 35%
Not in 2016: 20%

The federal government has promised to table electoral reform legislation within 18 months of forming the government, after forming a committee to study options (see article here).  They have not yet formed a committee.  I think they will do so in the relatively near future.

Marijuana Legalization

Before the end of June 2017, will a federal law legalizing marijuana be passed?
Yes: 45%
(A yes answer requires the law to receive royal assent)

The federal government has promised to introduce legislation legalizing marijuana by "spring 2017" (see article here).  They seemed to have delayed somewhat in creating legislation, so it is quite possible that they will not be able to introduce legislation by then (or at least pass it by the end of next June).

Rural Stormwater Fee Ottawa

Before the end of 2016, will the City of Ottawa introduce a separate fee for stormwater services in areas without sewer or water services?
Yes: 55%
(A general increase in property taxes to pay for stormwater services would not count for the purpose of this question.  A "Yes" answer only requires a decision by the city to introduce a fee, not the actual introduction of a fee)

There has been some controversy over a City of Ottawa proposal to introduce a fee for stormwater services in rural areas (see article here).  The city is currently considering options, and will report back in June at the earliest.  My sense is that some sort of new fee will likely be introduced, but it may not be a separate stormwater services fee.

Supervised Injection Site Ottawa

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government approve a supervised injection site in Ottawa?
Yes: 15%

The Sandy Hill Community Health Centre is seeking federal approval for a supervised injection site (see article here).  With the appropriate approval, the Centre hopes to open the site by "spring 2017".  The mayor and police chief are opposed, but some councillors and the medical officer of health support it.  I think the lack of approval from municipal authorities will be sufficient to stop this proposal, or at least delay it beyond the end date of this question.

Toronto Taxi Reform

Before the end of 2016, will Toronto City Council legalize ride-sharing companies such as Uber?
Yes: 30%
(For purposes of this question, legalization means allowing Uber to operate as it is now doing without burdensome restrictions.  The bylaw proposed by city staff would count as legalization, while the one proposed by the licensing and standards committee would not)

The Toronto Licensing and Standards Committee recently considered a bylaw that would have legalized ride-sharing companies such as Uber (see article here).  It decided to remove the section legalizing Uber, and sent the law on to City Council.  City Council could presumably bring back the removed section, if desired.  Toronto Mayor John Tory has expressed some support for the original by-law.  Given the decision of the city committee, I think that City Council will ultimately decide not to legalize Uber.

Mulcair Interim Leader

Before the end of 2016, will Tom Mulcair permanently leave the office of interim leader?
Yes: 15%

Mulcair lost the NDP leadership review last weekend, with only 48% support.  At the same time, he announced he would stay on as NDP interim leader until the leadership convention, which could be up to 2 years from now.  This has caused some complaining by NDP insiders, including Vancouver MP Don Davies (see article here), although he has received support from the NDP caucus to stay on (see article here).  It is possible that Mulcair will bow to pressure to step down before the convention.  I think he will decide to stay in the interim leadership until the leadership convention.

Cameron Resignation

Before the end of 2016, will David Cameron resign or otherwise leave office as Prime Minister of the UK?
Yes: 10%

There have been calls for British PM David Cameron to resign, because of allegations that he profited from an offshore account  (see article here).  From what I can tell, this is a fairly low-level scandal that is unlikely to lead to Cameron's resignation on its own.  Still, in the remainder of 2016, Cameron could leave office for some other reason.

Ottawa Taxi Reform

Before the end of June 2016, will Ottawa City Council approve the proposed reforms to taxi regulations?
Yes: 80%

On Friday, the City of Ottawa community and protective services committee approved a number of regulations to reform the taxi industry (see article here).  The issue goes before the full City Council on Wednesday.  Ottawa mayor Jim Watson is supportive of the changes, as is committee chair Diane Deans.  However, a number of councillors appear to be opposed.  My sense is that the reforms will be approved, although it is possible that the opposition will be significant enough to block the reforms (or delay approval beyond the end of June).

EU Visa Requirements

Before the end of March 2017, will the European Union require Canadians to have a visa to travel to the EU?
Yes: 15%
(The requirements have to actually be in place by the end of March 2017.  If a visa requirement is imposed and later rescinded, that counts for this question.)

There seems to be some suggestion that the EU might force Canadians to apply for a visa when travelling to the EU (see articles here and here).  The main issue seems to be that Canada requires visas for Romanians and Bulgarians.  The impression I get from both articles is that a visa requirement is unlikely to be imposed, because it would cut into tourism.  As well, even if a requirement is imposed, it sounds like it would take a long time; the CBC article mentions "late 2016 or early 2017" as the earliest a visa requirement could be imposed.

Budget Post-Mortem

• The budget was released on March 22 (see my post Federal Budget Timing).  I said there was a 35% chance that it would be released in the week of March 21st, and that week was the one I thought the budget would most likely be released in.
• The federal budget deficit for 2016 is $29.4 billion (see my posts Balanced Budget 2016, Balanced Budget 2016 v2, Federal Budget Deficit, Federal Budget Deficit v2, and Federal Budget Deficit v3).  In my initial prediction last April, I said there was a 35% chance of an unbalanced budget.  During the election campaign, I decreased that to 25%, because of the NDP pledge to run balanced budgets.  After the election, I said there was a 70% chance of a budget deficit larger than $10 billion.  In February, after the fiscal update, I projected a 30% chance of a deficit larger than $25 billion, and a 90% chance of a deficit smaller than $30 billion.  Just before the budget was released, I said there was a 85% chance of a deficit larger than $20 billion, and a 50% chance of a deficit smaller than $30 billion. Overall, I generally underestimated the size of the budget deficit, and I may have under-reacted to news suggesting that the budget deficit would be smaller than expected.
• The Liberals are repealing income-splitting for parents (see my post Income-Splitting Repeal)..  Last April, I said there was a 35% chance that this would happen.
• The budget announced a 1.61% 2017 EI premium rate (see my post EI Premium Rate 2017).  In December, I said there was a 35% chance of a 2017 EI premium rate between 1.6% and 1.7%, and I thought this was the most likely range,

Post-Mortem: Ottawa Questions

• The Ottawa Jail Strike was averted.  In mid-December, I said there was a 60% chance of an agreement by the end of April, and a 75% chance of no strike by then.  I may have been a bit pessimistic about how long it would take to reach an agreement.
• The Rideau Canal Opening was in January.  In late December, I said there was a 75% chance of the canal opening in January, as it almost always does.  Perhaps I should have paid more attention here to the base rate; the canal has only opened later than January once in its history.
• The Ottawa OMB Appeal was not successful.  I said there was a 70% chance of non-success.  This might be one of the cases where I was under-confident.
• The OLG Lockout continued beyond the end of February.  In December, I said there was only a 15% chance of the lockout lasting that long.

Economic Question Post-Mortem

There are a bunch of economic questions that have resolved in the past few months.

• Canadian GDP Growth in 2015 was 1.2% (see data here).  That fell within my 1% to 2% range, which I gave a 25% chance of.  Overall, I gave a 40% chance of GDP growth being lower than 2%.
• US Economic Growth in 2015 was 2.4% (see data here).  I gave a 22% chance of 2% to 3% growth, and a 55% chance of growth lower than 3%.
• Canadian Inflation in 2015 was 1.6% (see data here).  I said there was a 35% chance of an inflation rate between 1% and 2%, and a 65% chance of an inflation rate below 2%, so this is in line with what I expected.
• In January, the Bank of Canada didn't change the main interest rate (see my posts Canada Interest Rate January and Canada Interest Rate January v2).  I originally said that there was an 85% chance of an unchanged rate, which I later decreased to 47%.  This is one of those unusual cases where my initial prediction was better than my later predictions, and I may have over-reacted to later news.
• The Bank didn't change the interest rate in March either (see my post Canada Interest Rate March).  I said there was a 65% chance of an unchanged rate.

Overall, my economic projections might have overestimated the variance of economic variables; all of the predictions here fell in one of the middle ranges (counting "unchanged rate" as a middle range), which would be expected to happen by chance only 3.6% of the time, if my probabilities were correct.

Federal Budget Deficit 2017

What will be the federal government budget deficit for the 2017-2018 fiscal year, according to the 2017-2018 budget as originally tabled?
Less than $20 billion: 15%
Between $20 and $30 billion: 20%
Between $30 and $40 billion: 30%
More than $40 billion: 35%

The 2016 budget projects a $29 billion budget deficit in 2017 (see link here).   The government's economic estimates seem to be somewhat pessimistic, but they might continue to be so for the actual budget.  In addition, the government might increase spending more than current projections indicate.  I think the deficit is more likely than not to be larger than forecast.