By the end of 2016, will the federal government announce a military intervention by Canada in Libya?
Yes: 35%
("Military intervention" should be construed broadly)
The Defence Minister, Harjit Sajjan, has hinted that Canada may intervene in Libya against ISIS (see article here). This seems like a definite possibility, but I am reluctant to go with a higher than 50% probability in the relatively short time frame of this question.
Showing posts with label Africa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Africa. Show all posts
Tuesday, 16 February 2016
Sunday, 11 October 2015
Libyan Unity Government
By the end of 2015, will a Libyan unity government be formed?
Yes: 20%
The UN has come up with a proposal for a Libyan national unity government (see story here). Libya has suffered ongoing instability since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, and the internationally recognized government has lost control of the western part of the country (including the capital, Tripoli) to the Libya Dawn militia alliance. The UN proposal seems to have been dismissed by both sides in the conflict. It seems rather unlikely that a unity government will be formed as a result of it, or through any other means, in the remainder of 2015.
Yes: 20%
The UN has come up with a proposal for a Libyan national unity government (see story here). Libya has suffered ongoing instability since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, and the internationally recognized government has lost control of the western part of the country (including the capital, Tripoli) to the Libya Dawn militia alliance. The UN proposal seems to have been dismissed by both sides in the conflict. It seems rather unlikely that a unity government will be formed as a result of it, or through any other means, in the remainder of 2015.
Wednesday, 7 October 2015
Guinean Presidential Election
Who will win the Guinean presidential election?
Alpha Condé: 75%
Cellou Dalein Diallo: 20%
Someone Else: 5%
The African nation of Guinea will be holding presidential elections on October 11th (see article here). The incumbent president, Alpha Condé, seems to be the favourite. The campaign seems to have been marred by violence and accusations of irregularities. Incumbency is always a large advantage in elections of this type.
Alpha Condé: 75%
Cellou Dalein Diallo: 20%
Someone Else: 5%
The African nation of Guinea will be holding presidential elections on October 11th (see article here). The incumbent president, Alpha Condé, seems to be the favourite. The campaign seems to have been marred by violence and accusations of irregularities. Incumbency is always a large advantage in elections of this type.
Tuesday, 22 September 2015
Burkina Faso Coup
Before the end of September, will forces loyal to General Gilbert Diendéré lose control of the Presidential Palace?
Yes: 85%
A coup was launched last week in Burkina Faso, led by former spy chief General Gilbert Diendéré (see article here). Since then, army leaders against the coup have seized most of the capital city, Ouagadougou, except for the Presidential Palace. Talks are under way to peacefully resolve the coup. It sounds like the coup will be resolved peacefully in the near future, with Diendéré handing back control in the near future.
Yes: 85%
A coup was launched last week in Burkina Faso, led by former spy chief General Gilbert Diendéré (see article here). Since then, army leaders against the coup have seized most of the capital city, Ouagadougou, except for the Presidential Palace. Talks are under way to peacefully resolve the coup. It sounds like the coup will be resolved peacefully in the near future, with Diendéré handing back control in the near future.
Friday, 15 May 2015
Nkurunziza in Burundi
Q124: Before the end of 2015, will President Pierre Nkurunziza leave the office of presidency of Burundi?
Yes: 35%
There has been recent unrest in the Central African nation of Burundi recently, due to President Nkurunziza's decision to seek a third term (see Wikipedia article here). There have been widespread protests against the President, and a failed coup attempt. An election is scheduled for June.
My sense is that Nkurunziza will probably manage to remain in office. He has already beaten off a coup attempt, which will probably discourage future coups. He will likely win the election, fairly or unfairly. Still, the unrest does signal a higher risk to him than normal.
Yes: 35%
There has been recent unrest in the Central African nation of Burundi recently, due to President Nkurunziza's decision to seek a third term (see Wikipedia article here). There have been widespread protests against the President, and a failed coup attempt. An election is scheduled for June.
My sense is that Nkurunziza will probably manage to remain in office. He has already beaten off a coup attempt, which will probably discourage future coups. He will likely win the election, fairly or unfairly. Still, the unrest does signal a higher risk to him than normal.
Thursday, 12 March 2015
Boko Haram Gwoza
Q71: By the end of April 2015, will Boko Haram lose control of the town of the Nigerian town of Gowza?
Yes: 35%
No: 65%
According to recent reports, Boko Haram militants are assembling in the town of Gwoza, to prepare for the defence of that town. Nigerian and other national forces are currently undertaking an offensive against Boko Haram.
Nigerian troops have not been particularly effective so far at fighting Boko Haram, although they may face more pressure to succeed before the upcoming delayed presidential election. Still, I do not think that Gwoza will change hands before the end of April.
Yes: 35%
No: 65%
According to recent reports, Boko Haram militants are assembling in the town of Gwoza, to prepare for the defence of that town. Nigerian and other national forces are currently undertaking an offensive against Boko Haram.
Nigerian troops have not been particularly effective so far at fighting Boko Haram, although they may face more pressure to succeed before the upcoming delayed presidential election. Still, I do not think that Gwoza will change hands before the end of April.
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