Q141: What party will win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the next Burmese election?
UDSP: 25%
NLD: 73%
Some Other Party: 2%
(The rules for my previous post still apply)
The Burmese election will be held tomorrow (see article here). As discussed in my last post, the opposition NLD is expected to do very well, although there are some concerns that the vote will be rigged or not recognized by the ruling UDSP party. Given how smoothly the election has gone so far, I am increasing my odds for the NLD. I am also decreasing my odds for the other option, as no other credible party seems to have emerged.
Showing posts with label Asia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Asia. Show all posts
Saturday, 7 November 2015
Monday, 5 October 2015
Kunduz Control
By the end of 2015, will the government of Afghanistan control the city of Kunduz?
Yes: 60%
(This question will close for "No" if the government does not control a substantial part of the city, even if the government controls most of the city)
The Afghan city of Kunduz is currently being fought over between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban (see Wikipedia article here and news story here).. After the recent capture of the city by the Taliban, control seems to have gone back and forth between the Taliban and the government. The government seems to be making a substantial effort to recapture the city. I think that they will succeed in doing so by the end of 2015.
Yes: 60%
(This question will close for "No" if the government does not control a substantial part of the city, even if the government controls most of the city)
The Afghan city of Kunduz is currently being fought over between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban (see Wikipedia article here and news story here).. After the recent capture of the city by the Taliban, control seems to have gone back and forth between the Taliban and the government. The government seems to be making a substantial effort to recapture the city. I think that they will succeed in doing so by the end of 2015.
Sunday, 23 August 2015
Korean DMZ Agreement
Before the end of August, will North and South Korea reach some sort of agreement as the result of current talks?
Yes: 60%
(Any agreement would count, even if no details are made public. If the current round of talks breaks down, the question will resolve as no, even if future talks before the end of August do lead to an agreement)
Tensions in the DMZ between North and South Korea are somewhat elevated at the moment, due to the wounding of two South Korean soldiers by landmines earlier this month (see article here). North and South Korean negotiators are currently holding talks to attempt to defuse the tensions. I think that these talks will be successful, in that some sort of agreement or de-escalation will follow from them. Incidents in the DMZ seem to be quite common (see the Wikipedia article here), but rarely seem to escalate significantly.
Yes: 60%
(Any agreement would count, even if no details are made public. If the current round of talks breaks down, the question will resolve as no, even if future talks before the end of August do lead to an agreement)
Tensions in the DMZ between North and South Korea are somewhat elevated at the moment, due to the wounding of two South Korean soldiers by landmines earlier this month (see article here). North and South Korean negotiators are currently holding talks to attempt to defuse the tensions. I think that these talks will be successful, in that some sort of agreement or de-escalation will follow from them. Incidents in the DMZ seem to be quite common (see the Wikipedia article here), but rarely seem to escalate significantly.
Wednesday, 3 June 2015
Burmese Election
Q141: What party will win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the next Burmese election?
UDSP: 35%
NLD: 55%
Some other party: 10%
(The reported results are what matter for this question. For the purposes of this question, it does not matter if the government refuses to honour the results. Military-appointed seats do not count for any party for the purposes of this question. If no election is held before the end of 2016, this question will close in favour of the UDSP)
The next Burmese election is scheduled for October or November 2015 (see Wikipedia article here). All of the (non-appointed) seats in the lower chamber, the House of Representatives, will be available. In the last general election in 2010, the army-supported UDSP won the majority of seats (Burma used to be governed by the army, and still is to some extent). However, the election was widely perceived as illegitimate, and the NLD, the main opposition party, boycotted it (see article here). In the by-elections of 2012, the NLD won almost all of the limited number of seats available. Historically, the NLD was also very successful in the 1990 general election (although the results were not recognized by the military junta at the time).
The sense I have is that the NLD will almost certainly win the most seats, if the election is held fairly. However, it is quite possible it will not be. In particular, it is possible that the NLD will be prevented from participating in the election. Another possibility is that the NLD will be allowed to win the election, but somehow be prevented from wielding real power. Overall, I think that it is slightly more likely than not that the NLD will win the election.
UDSP: 35%
NLD: 55%
Some other party: 10%
(The reported results are what matter for this question. For the purposes of this question, it does not matter if the government refuses to honour the results. Military-appointed seats do not count for any party for the purposes of this question. If no election is held before the end of 2016, this question will close in favour of the UDSP)
The next Burmese election is scheduled for October or November 2015 (see Wikipedia article here). All of the (non-appointed) seats in the lower chamber, the House of Representatives, will be available. In the last general election in 2010, the army-supported UDSP won the majority of seats (Burma used to be governed by the army, and still is to some extent). However, the election was widely perceived as illegitimate, and the NLD, the main opposition party, boycotted it (see article here). In the by-elections of 2012, the NLD won almost all of the limited number of seats available. Historically, the NLD was also very successful in the 1990 general election (although the results were not recognized by the military junta at the time).
The sense I have is that the NLD will almost certainly win the most seats, if the election is held fairly. However, it is quite possible it will not be. In particular, it is possible that the NLD will be prevented from participating in the election. Another possibility is that the NLD will be allowed to win the election, but somehow be prevented from wielding real power. Overall, I think that it is slightly more likely than not that the NLD will win the election.
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