Senate Appointment Timing

Will at least 22 senate appointments be made in 2016?

Yes: 80%

(The appointments actually need to be made, not just announced.)

The new government plans to create an advisory board to recommend candidates for the Senate, with the goal of filling the current 22 vacancies by the end of the year (see article here).  It is not clear to me how firm this deadline is, but my default assumption is that it will probably be met.

Electoral Change Referendum

Before the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it will plans to hold a referendum on making changes to the way MPs are elected?
Yes: 35%
(The referendum does not actually need to be held in 2016 (or at all), simply announced.  A meta-referendum on the rules for how to change the way MPs are elected also counts)

The current federal government has promised to change the electoral system, but has said they will not hold a referendum on the proposed changes (see article here).  In the provinces, referenda have usually been held on proposed changes to the electoral system, and the changes have usually failed to pass in them.  Some, including the opposition Conservatives, have said a referendum should be held for national changes as well.  I think the current government is likely to stick to its "no referendum" position for the duration of 2016, although it might change its mind later.

Canada Interest Rate January

What will be the result of the January 20th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 12%
Unchanged Rate: 85%
Rate Increase: 3%

There is continuing speculation that rates may be cut (see story here).  However, given the unchanged rates in the last two meetings, I am going to increase my odds of an unchanged rate to 85% (from 80% in my last post).

NFL LA Relocation

By the end of 2016, which NFL teams will relocate to Los Angeles?
Zero teams: 30%
The San Diego Chargers only: 30%
The Oakland Raiders only: 10%
The St. Louis Rams only: 15%
Two or more teams: 15%
(The relocation must actually happen by the end of 2016, not just be announced)

Three teams have applied to move to Los Angeles for the next NFL season (see article here).  There seems to be a real possibility that more than one team could move to LA.  In October, a sports bookmaker suggested that there was at most a 60% chance of zero teams, a 40% chance of one team, and a 17% chance of two teams (see article here).  In August, another bookmaker suggested that the Chargers had at most a 59% chance of moving to LA, the Rams a 47% chance, and the Raiders a 8% chance (see article here).  I have the impression that the Rams are less likely to move than that, the Raiders are more likely, at least one team is rather likely to move in 2016.

Canadian Home Prices 2016

What will be the increase in Canadian Home Prices between December 2015 and December 2016 be, according to the MLS Home Price Index (HPI)?
Less than 0%: 15%
0-5%: 40%
5-10%: 30%
More than 10%: 15%
(See the tool here.  The Aggregate (over all cities), Composite (over all property types) number will be used)

According to the MLS HPI, Canadian home prices have increased every year since 2006 except 2008, with an average increase of 5% or so.  The rate of increase has been slightly lower in recent years than before 2008.  For the 9 years 2006-2014, 1 has seen a decrease in house prices, 3 have seen a 0-5% increase, 3 have seen a 5-10% increase, and 2 have seen a 10+% increase.  I think the rate of increase in 2016 is most likely to be in the 0-5% range, but a 5-10% increase is also quite possible.

Top Canada News 2016

What category will the Google top Canadian News Story of 2016 belong to?
Politics/Elections: 25%
Terrorism/Crime: 20%
Sports/Entertainment: 20%
Business/Economics: 10%
Some Other Category: 25%
(see the "News Stories" list here for the 2015 stories.  If Google changes their categories, a similar category will be used, if available; if not, this question will be voided.)

Of the top news stories of 2015, 3 were Sports/Entertainment stories, 2 were Politics/Elections, 2 were Terrorism/Crime, and 3 were Business/Economics.  I think 2015 was an unusually good year for Sports/Entertainment stories.  The US Presidential Election and the Olympics are obvious contenders for biggest story of 2016.  An major terrorist attack could also become the biggest story.  Business/Economics rarely seem to win in this sort of competition.

My classifications for 2015 were as follows:
Blue Jays Playoff Run: Sports/Entertainment
Federal Election: Politics/Elections
Pan Am Games: Sports/Entertainment
Paris Attacks: Terrorism/Crime
Charlie Hebdo Attack: Terrorism/Crime
Mayweather Pacquiao Fight: Sports/Entertainment
Donald Trump Candidacy: Politics/Elections
Greece Debt Crisis: Business/Economics
Oil Prices: Business/Economics
Ashley Madison Leak: Business/Economics

Top Global News 2016

What category will the Google top Global News Search of 2016 belong to?
Terrorism/Crime: 30%
Politics/Elections: 25%
Disasters/Diseases: 20%
Riots/Unrest: 10%
Some Other Category: 15%
(see the "Global News" list here for the list for 2015.  If Google changes their categories, a similar category will be used, if available; if not, this question will be voided.)

In 2015, the top global news search was for "Charlie Hebdo" which counts as Terrorism/Crime according to my categories.  In 2014, the top search was "Ebola", which counts as Disasters/Diseases.  Of the 18 topics listed in the last two years, 7 have been in Terrorism/Crime, 2 in Politics/Elections, 5 in Disasters/Diseases, 3 in Riots/Unrest, and 1 in Some Other Category.  I'm going to give the highest weight to Terrorism/Crime, based on the historical data.  Because of the US Election, I'll give Politics/Elections a higher weight than the past history numbers would suggest.  I'll also overweight Some Other Category, because to some extent I chose my categories to fit all of the stories, so the historical data probably underestimates Some Other Category.

My classifications for 2015 were as follows:
Charlie Hebdo: Terrorism/Crime
Paris: Terrorism/Crime
Hurricane Patricia: Disasters/Diseases
Isis: Terrorism/Crime
Nepal: Disasters/Diseases
El Chapo: Terrorism/Crime
Greece: Politics/Elections
Baltimore Riots: Riots/Unrest
San Bernardino: Terrorism/Crime
Hurricane Joaquin: Disasters/Diseases

For 2014,
Ebola: Disasters/Diseases
ISIS: Terrorism/Crime
Malaysia Airlines: Disasters/Diseases
Crimea / Ukraine: Riots/Unrest
Ferguson: Riots/Unrest
Gaza and Israel: Some Other Category
Scotish Referendum: Politics/Elections
Oscar Pistorius trial: Terrorism/Crime