What will be the result of the March 9th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 30%
Unchanged Rate: 65%
Rate Increase: 5%
The Bank of Canada decided to leave rates unchanged on January 20th (see article here). This was expected by about half of analysts. In March, I still think that the Bank is most likely to keep rates unchanged, but an interest rate cut seems like a real possibility, given that one was half-expected in January.
Monday, 25 January 2016
Saturday, 23 January 2016
Zibi Move-In
By the end of June 2017, will any residents move into the Zibi condo complex?
Yes: 80%
The Zibi development, on the Ottawa River, is currently under construction (see article here). The projected move-in date is "Spring 2017". Some aboriginal groups oppose the development, and it is conceivable that it could be delayed or cancelled because of that. Ordinary construction delays could also push the move-in date past Spring 2017. I think that the move-in will most likely happen on schedule, but this is not absolutely certain.
Yes: 80%
The Zibi development, on the Ottawa River, is currently under construction (see article here). The projected move-in date is "Spring 2017". Some aboriginal groups oppose the development, and it is conceivable that it could be delayed or cancelled because of that. Ordinary construction delays could also push the move-in date past Spring 2017. I think that the move-in will most likely happen on schedule, but this is not absolutely certain.
Thursday, 21 January 2016
Online Sales Exemption
Before the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it plans to increase the duty-free exemption for products purchased online?
Yes: 20%
The federal government is said to be considering an increase in the duty-free exemption for items purchased online (see article here). The article does not quote any specific sources in the government, although the Liberals supported a higher exemption when the Conservatives were in power. The exemption in Canada has not been changed since 1985, and is much lower than most other comparable countries. I think that the exemption will eventually be increased, but not necessarily in 2016.
Yes: 20%
The federal government is said to be considering an increase in the duty-free exemption for items purchased online (see article here). The article does not quote any specific sources in the government, although the Liberals supported a higher exemption when the Conservatives were in power. The exemption in Canada has not been changed since 1985, and is much lower than most other comparable countries. I think that the exemption will eventually be increased, but not necessarily in 2016.
Tuesday, 19 January 2016
Canada Interest Rate January v2
What will be the result of the January 20th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 50%
Unchanged Rate: 47%
Rate Increase: 3%
Since my last post, more recent commentary has suggested that the Bank of Canada is more likely to cut rates than I initially thought. I am updating my odds.
Rate Cut: 50%
Unchanged Rate: 47%
Rate Increase: 3%
Since my last post, more recent commentary has suggested that the Bank of Canada is more likely to cut rates than I initially thought. I am updating my odds.
Monday, 18 January 2016
Saudi Arms Deal
Before the end of 2016, will the federal government pause, cancel, or significantly modify the contract to sell LAV carriers to Saudi Arabia?
Yes: 15%
The government has recently been criticized for not intervening with a contract to sell LAV carriers to Saudi Arabia (see article here). The Conservative government initially approved the contract, although the Liberals also supported it at the time. The current Liberal government is still supportive. I think that support will continue.
Yes: 15%
The government has recently been criticized for not intervening with a contract to sell LAV carriers to Saudi Arabia (see article here). The Conservative government initially approved the contract, although the Liberals also supported it at the time. The current Liberal government is still supportive. I think that support will continue.
Saturday, 16 January 2016
Haitian Election
Who will win the Haitian Presidential Election?
Jovenel Moïse: 75%
Jude Célestin: 20%
Someone Else: 5%
(If the current scheduled runoff is rescheduled, then the result of the rescheduled election will count, as long as it is held in 2016. Initial results count as long as they clearly indicate a winner, even if they are later overturned)
The first round of the Haitian Presidential Election was held on October 25th, and resulted in Jovenel Moïse and Jude Célestin getting enough votes to get to the second round (see article here). Jovenel Moïse is the favoured candidate of the current president, and Célestin and other opposition figures have accused him of widespread fraud. Célestin in particular has refused to campaign for the runoff election. Given that Moïse got the most votes in the first round, and Célestin refuses to campaign, it looks likely Moïse will win. It is also possible (though unlikely) that someone else could win if the first round election results are somehow invalidated.
Jovenel Moïse: 75%
Jude Célestin: 20%
Someone Else: 5%
(If the current scheduled runoff is rescheduled, then the result of the rescheduled election will count, as long as it is held in 2016. Initial results count as long as they clearly indicate a winner, even if they are later overturned)
The first round of the Haitian Presidential Election was held on October 25th, and resulted in Jovenel Moïse and Jude Célestin getting enough votes to get to the second round (see article here). Jovenel Moïse is the favoured candidate of the current president, and Célestin and other opposition figures have accused him of widespread fraud. Célestin in particular has refused to campaign for the runoff election. Given that Moïse got the most votes in the first round, and Célestin refuses to campaign, it looks likely Moïse will win. It is also possible (though unlikely) that someone else could win if the first round election results are somehow invalidated.
Thursday, 14 January 2016
Senate Women
Of the next 22 appointments to the Senate, what percentage will be women?
0%-49%: 25%
50%-75%: 35%
75%-100%: 40%
(If the 23rd (and further) appointments are made at the same time as the 22nd, they will also count for this question)
Some have called for all of the current 22 vacancies in the Senate to be filled by women, to achieve gender balance (see article here). The current government has not made any specific commitments, although they seem vaguely positive towards gender balance. I think that the majority of the current vacancies will indeed be filled by women, but the percentage of female appointees will probably be significantly less than 100%.
0%-49%: 25%
50%-75%: 35%
75%-100%: 40%
(If the 23rd (and further) appointments are made at the same time as the 22nd, they will also count for this question)
Some have called for all of the current 22 vacancies in the Senate to be filled by women, to achieve gender balance (see article here). The current government has not made any specific commitments, although they seem vaguely positive towards gender balance. I think that the majority of the current vacancies will indeed be filled by women, but the percentage of female appointees will probably be significantly less than 100%.
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