Ontario Prorogation

 Before the end of June 2016, will the government of Ontario prorogue the Ontario legislature?
Yes: 40%

There is some speculation that the government will prorogue the Ontario legislature (see article here).  The government has not denied that it will do so, but has also not indicated that it will.  The article makes it sound like prorogation is almost a sure thing, but I am reluctant to assign a high probability given that most speculated events of this type don't actually happen.

Maple Syrup Quota Quebec

Before the end of March 2017, will the Quebec government officially announce that it is ending its maple syrup quota system?
Yes: 25%

A recent report called for the Quebec government to end its maple syrup quota (see article here).  Some maple syrup producers seem to support the quota, while others seem to be opposed.  My default position in this sort of case is to guess that the current status quo will continue, especially over the relatively short time frame of this question.

Federal Carbon Price

Before the end of March 2017, will the federal government announce a national carbon price?
Yes: 15%
(A federal carbon tax would count, as would a national cap-and-trade system.  The price does not need to made into law or implemented by the end of March 2017)

The federal government recently held a meeting with provincial premiers about the idea of a national carbon price (see articles here and here).  The meeting seems to have been somewhat inconclusive.  At this point, it does not look likely the federal government will proceed with a national carbon price in the near future.

Photo Radar Ottawa

Before the end of 2016, will the City of Ottawa ask the government of Ontario for permission to use photo radar?
Yes: 30%

The City of Ottawa is currently considering asking the province for permission to use photo radar (see article here).  The main proponent seems to be councillor Riley Brockington; mayor Jim Watson seems to be opposed.  At this point, I don't think that the city will ultimately end up asking for photo radar, at least this year, but it is possible that they will if there is enough community pressure.

Manitoba Election v2

Which party will the most seats in the next Manitoba provincial election?
PC: 91%
NDP: 5%
Liberal: 4%

Since my last post, the PCs and NDP have slipped slightly in the polls, and the Liberals have gained slightly (see article here).  The PCs still have a substantial lead however, so I am increasing my confidence for a PC win.

Eli El-Chantiry Resignation

Before the end of 2016, will Eli El-Chantiry permanently leave the office of Ottawa Police Services Board Chair?
Yes: 15%

The head of the police union has asked the chair of the police services board, Eli El-Chantiry, to resign (see article here).  El-Chantiry has said he does not plan to resign.  There doesn't seem to be much of a reason for him to do so, so I am giving a low estimate.

Federal Budget Deficit v3

What will be the federal government budget deficit for the 2016-2017 fiscal year, according to the budget as originally tabled?
Less than $20 billion: 15%
Between $20 and $30 billion: 35%
Between $30 and $40 billion: 30%
More than $40 billion: 20%

Since my last post, expectations for the budget deficit seemed to have increased slightly (see article here).  Some have recommended a deficit as large as $40 billion, and the median now seems to be about $30 billion,  I am increasing my estimate accordingly.