Will the panel examining Canada Post's operations recommend that it change the number of days of service?
Yes: 40%
There have been some suggestion that Canada Post might reduce the number of days of service (see article here). This seems to be more likely than postal banking, but far from a sure thing.
Monday, 30 May 2016
Saturday, 28 May 2016
Trump Tower Toronto
Before the end of June 2017, will the Trump Tower in Toronto be renamed?
Yes: 60%
(The renaming must remove Trump's name from the tower. A name like "T tower" would count for this purpose)
The Trump tower in Toronto is close to a sale, according to some recent reports (see article here). It has been suggested that the new owner might change the Tower's name, although the Trump Organization claims that they can't do so. Given the change in ownership, it seems likely to me that the tower will be renamed, even if the new owner retains some connection to the Trump Organization. It is also possible that tower will be renamed eventually, even if it is not renamed immediately after the sale.
Yes: 60%
(The renaming must remove Trump's name from the tower. A name like "T tower" would count for this purpose)
The Trump tower in Toronto is close to a sale, according to some recent reports (see article here). It has been suggested that the new owner might change the Tower's name, although the Trump Organization claims that they can't do so. Given the change in ownership, it seems likely to me that the tower will be renamed, even if the new owner retains some connection to the Trump Organization. It is also possible that tower will be renamed eventually, even if it is not renamed immediately after the sale.
Thursday, 26 May 2016
Mooney's Bay Playground
Before the end of 2016, will construction begin on the new proposed playground at Mooney's Bay?
Yes: 85%
The City of Ottawa recently entered into an agreement to build a new playground in Mooney's Bay Park, to some criticism (see articles here and here). On Wednesday, city council decided to not debate the new playground. Construction is to start in July, so it seems very likely that it will start by the end of the year. Still, it is possible that Council will change its mind, and halt or delay construction.
Yes: 85%
The City of Ottawa recently entered into an agreement to build a new playground in Mooney's Bay Park, to some criticism (see articles here and here). On Wednesday, city council decided to not debate the new playground. Construction is to start in July, so it seems very likely that it will start by the end of the year. Still, it is possible that Council will change its mind, and halt or delay construction.
Tuesday, 24 May 2016
Ontario Budget Deficit 2017
What will be the Ontario government budget balance for the 2017-2018 fiscal year, according to the 2017-2018 budget as originally tabled?
A surplus of more than $5 billion: 10%
A surplus of less than $5 billion: 40%
A deficit of less than $5 billion: 25%
A deficit of more than $5 billion: 25%
The Ontario government is projecting a modest surplus for the 2017-2018 fiscal year, after a projected deficit of $4.3 billion in 2016-2017 (see articles here and here). The projection seems reasonable, according to Ontario's Financial Accountability Officer. This year, the government's projected deficit for 2016-2017 decreased from the 2015 budget to the 2016 budget.
I think the most likely outcome is a small surplus. However, unexpected events could lead to a relatively large deficit, or at least a small deficit. A large surplus seems unlikely.
A surplus of more than $5 billion: 10%
A surplus of less than $5 billion: 40%
A deficit of less than $5 billion: 25%
A deficit of more than $5 billion: 25%
The Ontario government is projecting a modest surplus for the 2017-2018 fiscal year, after a projected deficit of $4.3 billion in 2016-2017 (see articles here and here). The projection seems reasonable, according to Ontario's Financial Accountability Officer. This year, the government's projected deficit for 2016-2017 decreased from the 2015 budget to the 2016 budget.
I think the most likely outcome is a small surplus. However, unexpected events could lead to a relatively large deficit, or at least a small deficit. A large surplus seems unlikely.
Sunday, 22 May 2016
Canada Post Banking
Will the panel examining Canada Post's operations recommend that it enter the banking business?
Yes: 25%
(If the panel is dismissed without offering any recommendations, that will count as a No)
The federal government has formed a panel to study Canada Post's operations (see article here). The postal union has suggested that Canada Post re-enter the banking business. The government has not ruled out this suggestion. Based on my general tendency to guess the continuation of the status quo, I think that the panel will not recommend that Canada Post enter banking.
Yes: 25%
(If the panel is dismissed without offering any recommendations, that will count as a No)
The federal government has formed a panel to study Canada Post's operations (see article here). The postal union has suggested that Canada Post re-enter the banking business. The government has not ruled out this suggestion. Based on my general tendency to guess the continuation of the status quo, I think that the panel will not recommend that Canada Post enter banking.
Friday, 20 May 2016
Canada Post Community Mailboxes v2
Before the end of June 2017, what will be officially announced regarding Canada Post's community mailbox conversion program?
Community mailbox conversions will resume: 20%
No Announcement will be made: 45%
Home delivery will be restored in some areas: 35%
(see my post Canada Post Community Mailboxes for conditions)
The federal government has formed a panel to study Canada Post's operations (see article here). Given the amount of time that has passed, it now seems more likely to me that the government will ultimately decide for the status quo for home delivery. Contrariwise, continued community mailbox conversions seem less likely.
Community mailbox conversions will resume: 20%
No Announcement will be made: 45%
Home delivery will be restored in some areas: 35%
(see my post Canada Post Community Mailboxes for conditions)
The federal government has formed a panel to study Canada Post's operations (see article here). Given the amount of time that has passed, it now seems more likely to me that the government will ultimately decide for the status quo for home delivery. Contrariwise, continued community mailbox conversions seem less likely.
Wednesday, 18 May 2016
Electoral Reform Legislation
Before the end of June 2017, will federal electoral reform legislation be introduced?
Yes: 60%
(Legislation to hold a referendum would count, but legislation that makes small changes to the electoral system would not.)
The federal government has formed a committee to study electoral reform options (see article here). It had previously promised to introduce legislation within 18 months of forming the government. At this point, that seems fairly ambitious, although still possible.
Yes: 60%
(Legislation to hold a referendum would count, but legislation that makes small changes to the electoral system would not.)
The federal government has formed a committee to study electoral reform options (see article here). It had previously promised to introduce legislation within 18 months of forming the government. At this point, that seems fairly ambitious, although still possible.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)