Interest Rate July

What will be the result of the July 13th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 6%
Unchanged Rate: 91%
Rate Increase: 3%

After leaving rates unchanged in May, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged in July as well (see article here).  I tend to think a rate change is very unlikely, but a rate cut is more likely than a rate increase, given the fire in Fort McMurray.

Trans Mountain Pipeline

Before the end of June 2016, will the federal government approve the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion?
Yes: 65%

The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion was recently approved by the NEB (see article here). The federal government must now make a decision.  From this article, it sounds like the government has not yet made a decision.  I tend to think that it is slightly more likely than not that the government will approve the pipeline, given the NEB approval and the government's statements.

CPP Expansion Agreement v2

Before the end of 2016, will an substantive inter-provincial agreement be reached on expanding CPP?
Yes: 50%
(The agreement must involve the federal government and at least 7 provinces representing two-thirds of the Canadian population.  The agreement does not need to be a final agreement, or receive approval from federal or provincial parliaments, but must be more than an agreement to continue to study the options)

Another federal-provincial meeting is taking place on Monday regarding CPP expansion (see article here).  There seems to be more support for expansion than I noted in my previous post, with the BC premier now clearly supporting it.  I am thus increasing my odds of an agreement eventually being reached.

Canada Post Strike

Before the end of 2016, will there be a Canada Post strike or lockout involving CUPW?
Yes: 40%
(If a new contract is ratified, this question will immediately close on No)

Contract negotiations are currently going on between Canada Post and its union, CUPW (see article here).  Canada Post has warned some customers of a "potential work stoppage" in early July, and some union officials have also indicated that a strike or lockout is imminent.  The last contract negotiations (in 2011) resulted in a 3-week strike.

The base rate of strikes is rather low, but the history in this case suggests a strike is more likely.  As well, both parties seem to be signalling that a strike is likely, although this is partly for show.  I am going with a fairly neutral forecast.

Assisted Suicide Law v4

When will a federal law regulating assisted suicide be passed?
Before the end of June: 40%
Between July 1st and December 31st: 30%
Not before the end of 2016: 30%

The June 6th deadline to pass a law regarding assisted suicide has been missed (see articles here and here).  The law has already been passed in the House of Commons, but the Senate has amended it, so the new version will have to be passed again.  The timeline seems to be "weeks".  It seems to me quite possible that a new law will take longer than that, and it is possible that no law will be passed at all in 2016.

Super Hornet Purchase

Before the end of August 2017, will the federal government officially announce that it will purchase Boeing Super Hornet fighters?
Yes: 55%
(The purchase itself does not need to take place by the end of August 2017.  Beginning a process that later leads to the purchase does not count.)

The federal government is currently considering purchasing several Boeing Super Hornet fighters, as a replacement for the current C-18 fighters (see articles here and here).  There is some controversy because the government is allegedly planning to sole-source the fighters, as opposed to holding an open competition.  The government has not yet officially made a decision, but one seems to be expected soon.  Given how slowly this issue moves, I am still less than confident that an official announcement will be made in the next year.

Sinkhole LRT Cause

Before the end of 2016, will the City of Ottawa officially state that LRT construction was responsible for the recent Rideau Street sinkhole?
Yes: 25%
(If the city officially rules out LRT construction, that counts as a No.  "Partial responsibility" counts)

There has been some speculation that the Rideau Street sinkhole was caused by LRT construction (see articles here and here).  The cause has not yet been determined, but LRT construction was going on in the area.  Officials have said LRT construction is unlikely to be the cause, but it has not been ruled out.