Federal Email v2

By the end of August 2017, will the new federal government email system be completed?
Yes: 60%
(Substantial completion is what counts; there can be a few departments not using the system, or a few features not yet released.)

Since my last post, there have been further delays in the roll-out of the new federal government email system (see article here).  However, progress seems to have been made, and it seems more likely than not that the roll-out will be complete by the end of next August.

Second Brexit Referendum

Before the end of August 2017, will another referendum be announced on the UK leaving the EU?
Yes: 15%

There has been some speculation that another Brexit referendum might be held, likely after negotiations have led to some new deal (see article here).  My sense is that this is possible, but unlikely, especially in the short time frame of this question.

Supervised Injection Site Ottawa v2

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government approve a supervised injection site in Ottawa?
Yes: 50%

Since my last post, more support has been expressed for supervised injection sites (see article here).  I am thus increasing my forecast.  However, the timeline for this question is still fairly tight.

Interest Rate July

What will be the result of the July 13th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 6%
Unchanged Rate: 91%
Rate Increase: 3%

After leaving rates unchanged in May, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged in July as well (see article here).  I tend to think a rate change is very unlikely, but a rate cut is more likely than a rate increase, given the fire in Fort McMurray.

Trans Mountain Pipeline

Before the end of June 2016, will the federal government approve the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion?
Yes: 65%

The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion was recently approved by the NEB (see article here). The federal government must now make a decision.  From this article, it sounds like the government has not yet made a decision.  I tend to think that it is slightly more likely than not that the government will approve the pipeline, given the NEB approval and the government's statements.

CPP Expansion Agreement v2

Before the end of 2016, will an substantive inter-provincial agreement be reached on expanding CPP?
Yes: 50%
(The agreement must involve the federal government and at least 7 provinces representing two-thirds of the Canadian population.  The agreement does not need to be a final agreement, or receive approval from federal or provincial parliaments, but must be more than an agreement to continue to study the options)

Another federal-provincial meeting is taking place on Monday regarding CPP expansion (see article here).  There seems to be more support for expansion than I noted in my previous post, with the BC premier now clearly supporting it.  I am thus increasing my odds of an agreement eventually being reached.

Canada Post Strike

Before the end of 2016, will there be a Canada Post strike or lockout involving CUPW?
Yes: 40%
(If a new contract is ratified, this question will immediately close on No)

Contract negotiations are currently going on between Canada Post and its union, CUPW (see article here).  Canada Post has warned some customers of a "potential work stoppage" in early July, and some union officials have also indicated that a strike or lockout is imminent.  The last contract negotiations (in 2011) resulted in a 3-week strike.

The base rate of strikes is rather low, but the history in this case suggests a strike is more likely.  As well, both parties seem to be signalling that a strike is likely, although this is partly for show.  I am going with a fairly neutral forecast.