Questions Resolved in May

A lot of questions resolved in May:

• Q12, Q68, and Q95 (Ontario PC Leadership Race) have resolved for Patrick Brown.  I said this had a 3%, 35%, and 60% chance of happening.  I certainly underestimated Patrick Brown in the first forecast, and possibly in the latter two forecasts as well.  I will be increasing my odds for underdogs in leadership races in the future.
• Q25 (Target Stores: Walmart) has resolved for yes, as Walmart has announced that it will take over the former Targets at Bayshore and Billings Bridge.  I said this had a 75% chance of happening, which might have actually been too high.
• Q81 (Aden Capture) has resolved for "later [than April] or never".  The Houthis have not been able to capture Aden.  I said this has a 30% chance of happening.  Overall, I have probably been overestimating how fast military captures of this type will happen.
• Q92 and Q112 (Alberta Election) have resolved for "NDP minority/majority" and "NDP majority".  I said this had a 5% and a 35% chance of happening, respectively.  I might have underestimated the NDP slightly at the beginning of the campaign, but the NDP's rise was a genuinely unlikely event for which a 5% estimate was not completely inappropriate.
• Q100 (High School Strike Durham) has resolved for "Not before May 9th" because students took that long to return to class.   I said this had a 35% chance of happening, which seems about right.
• Q108 (PEI Election) has resolved for the Liberals, which I said had a 95% chance of happening.
• Q110 (BC Teacher Rights) has resolved for no.  The BC Court of Appeal ruled that 2002 provincial legislation did not unconstitutionally restrict teachers' collective bargaining rights.  This is at odds with the findings of the BC.Supreme Court.  I said this had a 40% chance of happening,
• Q111 (Omar Khadr Release) has resolved for "Before May 31", which I said had a 50% chance of happening.  Khadr was released on schedule in early May.  I might have slightly underestimated the chance that this would happen.
• Q118 (Ramadi Capture) has resolved to yes.  I said this had a 40% chance of happening, which seems too low given how quickly it happened.
• Q121 (High School Strike Peel) has resolved for "Before May 31st" as the strike ended and Peel Students returned to class.  I said this had a 35% chance of happening.
• Q131 (Ottawa Champions Attendance) has resolved for "3500-4000", which I said had a 40% chance of happening.  The official attendance was 3876, in line with official estimates, which seem to have been fairly accurate in this case.

Overall, the Ontario PC leadership race and Alberta election suggest that I may have underestimated the chances of underdogs in elections.  I think that my high school strike estimates were reasonably good, because I erred in different directions for the two questions.  I made similar offsetting errors in my Aden Capture and Ramadi Capture questions.