Presto Rate Ottawa

What rate will Metrolinx and the City of Ottawa agree on for Presto services?
3% or less: 10%
Between 3% and 5%: 20%
Between 5% and 7%: 40%
Between 7% and 9%: 20%
More than 9%: 10%
(This question will close when an agreement is reached.  If the parties fail to reach an agreement by the end of 2017, the question will be voided.  The percentage is based on the percentage of Presto fares; if an agreement is reached on some other basis, it will be converted to a percentage of Presto fares.)

The City of Ottawa and Metrolinx are currently in discussions regarding the fee paid for Presto services (see articles here and here).  The City currently pays 2% of Presto fares to Metrolinx,  Metrolinx wants 10%, and the city has budgeted 4% going forward.  The TTC pays 5.25%.  It seems most likely that the City will eventually pay a fee in the 5% to 7% range, although it is possible they might end up paying more or less than that.  A fee of less than 3% seems unlikely, as does a fee of greater than 9%.

Civic Hospital Site

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government and the Ottawa Hospital announce a new site on the Central Experimental Farm for the Civic Campus?
Yes: 40%
(A specific site must be chosen, and the announcement must have the agreement of both parties.)

The Ottawa Hospital is currently considering 4 sites for a new Civic Campus, 3 of which are on the Central Experimental Farm (see article here).  I'm not sure what the expected timeline is to be, but it seems likely that a site on the Farm will eventually be chosen.  However, it may not happen in the next year.

MTS Sale v2

Before the end of June 2017, will the proposed acquisition of MTS by Bell close?
Yes: 70%

Bell has announced that it plans to take-over MTS, a Manitoba telecom (see articles here and here).  The deal is expected to close in "early 2017".  There seems to be some political opposition to the deal due to competition concerns.  Still, it seems more likely than not that the deal will close on schedule.

Mitel-Polycom Merger

Before the end of 2016, will the proposed merger between Mitel and Polycom close?
Yes: 85%

Mitel and Polycom have announced that they plan to merge (see article here).  The merger is expected to close in the third quarter, but still needs approval from regulators and shareholders.  My sense is that this approval is largely a formality.  However, the merger could still be called off if market conditions change significantly.

Post-Mortem: Elections

• The Saskatchewan Party won the Saskatchewan Election (also see my post Saskatchewan Election v2).  Last September, I said they had a 90% chance of winning, which I recently increased to 95%.  I might have been slightly overconfident.
• The PCs won the Manitoba Election (also see my post Manitoba Election v2).  Last September, I said there was an 80% chance that they would win the election, which I increased to 91% in March.  These numbers seem about right.
• Mulcair lost the NDP leadership review (see my post Mulcair NDP Leader).  In December, I said there was a 65% chance that Mulcair would lose.  That might have been a bit low, given the low level of support received by Mulcair.

Post-Mortem: Courts

• Jian Ghomeshi was acquitted in his recent trial (see my post Jian Ghomeshi Verdict).  I said there was a 65% chance that this would happen, which might have been a bit low given how strongly the conventional wisdom at the time suggested that Ghomeshi would be acquitted.
• Mike Duffy was acquitted on all counts (see my posts Mike Duffy Verdict and Mike Duffy Jail Time).  I said there was a 15% chance that he would be completely acquitted, and a 65% chance that he wouldn't face jail time.  The 15% estimate might have been too low, although complete acquittal didn't seem like what the conventional wisdom suggested at the time.
• The Supreme Court found mandatory minimum drug sentences unconstitutional (see my post SC Drug Sentences).  Last May, I said there was a 70% chance that this would be the Supreme Court's finding, which may have been a bit conservative.

Post-Mortem: Business Questions

• Allstream was sold to Zayo Group (see my post Allstream Sale).  Last September, I said there was 65% chance that Allstream would be sold by the end of this August, and a 15% (unconditional) chance that Allstream would be sold to some company other than Rogers, Bell, or Telus.  As usual, I might have given the "Other" option too small of a chance.
• Rexall is being acquired by McKesson Corp. (see my post Rexall Acquisition).  Last September, I said there was a 15% chance that Rexall would be acquired by the end of 2016.  I'm not sure this wasn't a bad estimate; acquisitions aren't that common, and there didn't seem to be any specific information suggesting that Rexall was going to be acquired soon.
• The Canadian Oil Sands Acquisition by Suncor has closed.  Last October, I said there was a 50% chance that Canadian Oil Sands would be acquired by the end of 2016, and a 20% chance that Suncor would acquire them.  Given that Suncor was actively pursing Canadian Oil Sands at the time, these numbers may have been a bit low.
• The Corus-Shaw Deal has closed.  In March, before it received regulatory approval, I said there was a 75% chance it would close, which seems reasonable.
• The CP-NS merger has been called off.  I said there was a 20% chance the merger would go through in 2016, which seems reasonable.