Which party will the prime minister of Portugal belong to after the election on October 4th?
Portugal Ahead: 15%
Socialist Party: 80%
Some Other Party: 3%
No Stable Coalition will be Formed: 2%
Because of the potential for coalitions in Portuguese politics, the party that wins the highest percentage of the vote may not be the party that ultimately forms the government. As I noted in an earlier post, the Socialist Party is currently leading slightly in the polls (their lead of about 2% hasn't changed since my last post). However, even if they don't get the highest percentage of the vote, they are likely to form the government. Almost all of the minor parties in Portugal seem to be left-wing, and thus better potential coalition partners with the Socialist Party then with the right-wing Portugal Ahead. Portugal Ahead would have to win almost a majority of the seats to be assured of forming the government. Given that they are presently at about 35% of the vote, this is a difficult task.
Monday, 31 August 2015
Sunday, 30 August 2015
September Greek Election
Which party will get the highest percentage of the vote in the Greek legislative election scheduled for September 20th?
SYRIZA: 65%
New Democracy: 30%
Some Other Party: 5%
A snap Greek legislative election is to be held on September 20th. Current polls (summarized here) suggest that SYRIZA, the current governing party, has about a 3% lead over New Democracy, the main opposition party (the other parties are well back). Given that lead, SYRIZA is the most likely winner of the election. However, given the volatility of Greek politics, it is quite possible that New Democracy, or even some third party, could end up winning.
SYRIZA: 65%
New Democracy: 30%
Some Other Party: 5%
A snap Greek legislative election is to be held on September 20th. Current polls (summarized here) suggest that SYRIZA, the current governing party, has about a 3% lead over New Democracy, the main opposition party (the other parties are well back). Given that lead, SYRIZA is the most likely winner of the election. However, given the volatility of Greek politics, it is quite possible that New Democracy, or even some third party, could end up winning.
Saturday, 29 August 2015
Simcoe North By-election Result
Who will win the by-election in the provincial riding of Simcoe North?
Patrick Brown: 90%
Fred Larsen: 9%
Elizabeth Van Houtte: 1%
There will be a by-election in Simcoe North on September 3rd, to allow the new PC leader, Patrick Brown, to take a seat in the legislature. In the last election, Simcoe North went fairly solidly to the PCs; they got 44% of the vote, the Liberals got 33%, and the NDP 16%. Given the advantage Brown should have as party leader, and given that the PCs have gained relative to the Liberals since the last election, Brown should be able to win this seat easily.
Patrick Brown: 90%
Fred Larsen: 9%
Elizabeth Van Houtte: 1%
There will be a by-election in Simcoe North on September 3rd, to allow the new PC leader, Patrick Brown, to take a seat in the legislature. In the last election, Simcoe North went fairly solidly to the PCs; they got 44% of the vote, the Liberals got 33%, and the NDP 16%. Given the advantage Brown should have as party leader, and given that the PCs have gained relative to the Liberals since the last election, Brown should be able to win this seat easily.
Friday, 28 August 2015
Pontiac
Which party will win in the riding of Pontiac?
NDP: 80%
Liberal: 12%
Conservative: 8%
Pontiac is a rural Quebec riding that has a significant Anglophone population (38%). In the last election, the NDP won it from the Conservatives. In the territory covered by the current riding, the NDP got 47% of the vote, the Conservatives 26%, the Liberals 15%, and the Bloc 10%. Although the NDP are not polling as well in Quebec as they were in the last election, the Conservatives have lost the advantage of having an incumbent cabinet minister (Lawrence Cannon) running for them. Given that, the NDP will probably be able to hold on to Pontiac. They might be challenged by the Liberals, who have increased in the polls in Quebec.
NDP: 80%
Liberal: 12%
Conservative: 8%
Pontiac is a rural Quebec riding that has a significant Anglophone population (38%). In the last election, the NDP won it from the Conservatives. In the territory covered by the current riding, the NDP got 47% of the vote, the Conservatives 26%, the Liberals 15%, and the Bloc 10%. Although the NDP are not polling as well in Quebec as they were in the last election, the Conservatives have lost the advantage of having an incumbent cabinet minister (Lawrence Cannon) running for them. Given that, the NDP will probably be able to hold on to Pontiac. They might be challenged by the Liberals, who have increased in the polls in Quebec.
Thursday, 27 August 2015
Tammam Salam Leaving Office
Will Tammam Salam leave the office of Prime Minister of Lebanon before the end of 2015?
Yes: 30%
(A temporary exit from office would not count for this question)
There are currently widespread protests going in Lebanon over the lack of trash collection (see story here). Lebanon has been without a (non-acting) President for more than a year, and is currently ruled by a unity government led by Tammam Salam. Some of the protesters have called for Salam's resignation, and he has hinted that he may resign if the crisis is not resolved.
I think that Salam will stay in power, at least for the remainder of the year. His term lasts until 2017, and the current protests seem to fit in with a pattern of instability that has been going on for several years. The current protests don't seem to be severe enough to bring down the government.
Yes: 30%
(A temporary exit from office would not count for this question)
There are currently widespread protests going in Lebanon over the lack of trash collection (see story here). Lebanon has been without a (non-acting) President for more than a year, and is currently ruled by a unity government led by Tammam Salam. Some of the protesters have called for Salam's resignation, and he has hinted that he may resign if the crisis is not resolved.
I think that Salam will stay in power, at least for the remainder of the year. His term lasts until 2017, and the current protests seem to fit in with a pattern of instability that has been going on for several years. The current protests don't seem to be severe enough to bring down the government.
Wednesday, 26 August 2015
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Which party will win in the riding of Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke?
Conservative: 94%
Liberal: 3%
NDP: 3%
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke is a rural Ontario riding that is north-west of Ottawa. It is currently held by Conservative MP Cheryl Gallant. The last election was somewhat unusual in that former Liberal MP Hec Clouthier ran as an independent. The Conservatives got 53% of the vote, Clouthier 19%, and the NDP and Liberals 13%. Clouthier isn't planning on running again, so the Liberals should improve their total slightly, but this is still a solid Conservative riding.
Conservative: 94%
Liberal: 3%
NDP: 3%
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke is a rural Ontario riding that is north-west of Ottawa. It is currently held by Conservative MP Cheryl Gallant. The last election was somewhat unusual in that former Liberal MP Hec Clouthier ran as an independent. The Conservatives got 53% of the vote, Clouthier 19%, and the NDP and Liberals 13%. Clouthier isn't planning on running again, so the Liberals should improve their total slightly, but this is still a solid Conservative riding.
Tuesday, 25 August 2015
New Brunswick Liquor Limits
Will the New Brunswick provincial court find that interprovincial liquor limits are unconstitutional in the case of Gerard Comeau?
Yes: 20%
(The initial decision of the court is all that matters for this question; results on subsequent appeals do not matter. This question is about the constitutionality of liquor limits, not the judgement against Comeau per se. A partial finding of unconstitutionality counts)
Gerald Comeau, a New Brunswick resident, is currently challenging a New Brunswick law which limits importation of alcohol into New Brunswick from other provinces (see story here). He had been caught transporting alcohol into New Brunswick from Quebec by the RCMP.
This sort of case seems like a tough fight for the defendants. The law in question has been around for a long time, as have interprovincial trade barriers more generally. The Supreme Court seems to have acquiesced to such barriers in a 1921 decision. Part of the purpose of this sort of case is to generate discussion about the law in question, even if the case itself is ultimately unsuccessful.
Yes: 20%
(The initial decision of the court is all that matters for this question; results on subsequent appeals do not matter. This question is about the constitutionality of liquor limits, not the judgement against Comeau per se. A partial finding of unconstitutionality counts)
Gerald Comeau, a New Brunswick resident, is currently challenging a New Brunswick law which limits importation of alcohol into New Brunswick from other provinces (see story here). He had been caught transporting alcohol into New Brunswick from Quebec by the RCMP.
This sort of case seems like a tough fight for the defendants. The law in question has been around for a long time, as have interprovincial trade barriers more generally. The Supreme Court seems to have acquiesced to such barriers in a 1921 decision. Part of the purpose of this sort of case is to generate discussion about the law in question, even if the case itself is ultimately unsuccessful.
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