Pontiac

Which party will win in the riding of Pontiac?
NDP: 80%
Liberal: 12%
Conservative: 8%

Pontiac is a rural Quebec riding that has a significant Anglophone population (38%).  In the last election, the NDP won it from the Conservatives.  In the territory covered by the current riding, the NDP got 47% of the vote, the Conservatives 26%, the Liberals 15%, and the Bloc 10%.  Although the NDP are not polling as well in Quebec as they were in the last election, the Conservatives have lost the advantage of having an incumbent cabinet minister (Lawrence Cannon) running for them.  Given that, the NDP will probably be able to hold on to Pontiac.  They might be challenged by the Liberals, who have increased in the polls in Quebec.