Questions Resolved in July Part 2

• Q150 (Iran Nuclear Agreement) has resolved for "In the month of July" as the P5+1 reached a final agreement with Iran this month.  I said that an agreement in July had a 35% chance of happening, and an agreement in June or July had a 60% chance of happening.  I probably should have increased my odds slightly for an agreement in July; as I said in my original forecast, these sorts of agreements almost never happen before the deadline.
• Q156 (Calypso Fine) has resolved for "$400,000 to $1,000,000", as Calypso has been fined $500,000 (including a $100,000 victim surcharge).  I said this had a 50% chance of happening (with 4 bins), which seems about right.
• Q163 (Greek Bailout) has resolved for "In the month of July", as a deal to release further bailout funds to Greece was reached in July.  I said a deal had a 20% chance of being reached in July, which was probably a bit too low (I put too much faith in the original June 30th deadline), and a 60% chance of being reached overall, which was about right.
• Q164 (Loblaws Strike) has resolved for "Not before August 31st", as a new contract has been signed between Loblaws workers and employees.  I said this had a 60% chance of happening, which seems about right.
• Q166 (Greek Referendum) has resolved for "The Creditors' Proposal will not be Approved".  I said there was 50% chance that the referendum would be held at all, which was too low, and a 60% chance that the "no" side would win if a referendum was held, which seems about right (the conventional wisdom at the time was that the "yes" side would win, but polls did not really support that belief).
• Q167 (Greek Banks) has resolved for "After July 6th", as Greek banks re-opened on July 20th.  I said that this had a 30% chance of happening.  I may have put too much weight on the originally scheduled July 6th date for banks to re-open.
• Q173 (Canada Interest Rate July) has resolved for "Rate Cut", as the Bank of Canada has cut the overnight rate target to 0.5% from 0.75%.  I gave 25% odds of a rate cut.  This was probably reasonable; most economists at the time did not think a rate cut would happen.