Now that the federal election has been called, I will be making riding-by-riding projections for Ottawa-area ridings (starting with the centre and moving outwards). I'll mainly base my numbers on ThreeHundredEight.com, but I'll occasionally deviate from their forecasts. For all of these questions, the question will be about the winning party (not the winning candidate).
Which party will win in the riding of Ottawa Centre?
NDP: 95%
Liberal: 4%
Conservatives: 1%
The NDP have held Ottawa Centre since 2004, and won with around 50% of the vote in the last election (the Liberals and Conservatives each got around 20%). It would take a true NDP collapse for them to lose this riding (and even then, it would probably be close). If the NDP do lose, the Liberals are much more likely than the Conservatives to win in this riding, although the Conservatives did finish second last time.
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