Guinean Presidential Election

Who will win the Guinean presidential election?
Alpha Condé: 75%
Cellou Dalein Diallo: 20%
Someone Else: 5%

The African nation of Guinea will be holding presidential elections on October 11th (see article here).  The incumbent president, Alpha Condé, seems to be the favourite.  The campaign seems to have been marred by violence and accusations of irregularities.  Incumbency is always a large advantage in elections of this type.

Next Federal Election Date

Before the end of 2016, will there be another federal election?
Yes: 20%

The government formed after the current federal election may well be a somewhat unstable minority government, especially if the Conservatives return to power.  It is possible that there could be another federal election if the newly formed government falls.  I think that that the new government will probably last at least through the end of 2016. Joe Clark's 1979 government was the last one to last less than a year; recent Conservative minorities have managed to stay in power for longer than that.

Kunduz Control

By the end of 2015, will the government of Afghanistan control the city of Kunduz?
Yes: 60%
(This question will close for "No" if the government does not control a substantial part of the city, even if the government controls most of the city)

The Afghan city of Kunduz is currently being fought over between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban (see Wikipedia article here and news story here)..  After the recent capture of the city by the Taliban, control seems to have gone back and forth between the Taliban and the government.  The government seems to be making a substantial effort to recapture the city.  I think that they will succeed in doing so by the end of 2015.

Trans-Pacific Partnership Canada v2

By the end of October 2015, will Canada successfully conclude negotiations on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP)?
Yes: 45%
(An "agreement-in-principle" counts)

TPP negotiations seem to be currently in the final stage, with a possible deal expected shortly (see story here).  There still seems to be substantial uncertainty over whether a deal will actually be reached; many substantial issues still seem to be unresolved.  I think that a deal is about as likely to be reached as not; the news stories convey the sense of an imminent deal, but there don't seem to be many insiders saying that a deal is inevitable.

Guatemalan Election v3

Who will win the next Guatemalan Presidential Election?
Jimmy Morales: 65%
Sandra Torres: 35%

The first round of the Guatemalan Presidential Election resulted in Morales in first place with 24% of the vote, and Torres in second place with about 20% of the vote (Baldizón was just behind Torres).  Morales and Torres will face each other in a run-off election, to be held on October 25th.  Given the small lead for Morales in the first round, he seems more likely to win the run-off then Torres.  Also, Baldizón supporters are probably more likely to support Morales (who is on the right side of the political spectrum, like Baldizón), then Torres (who is on the left side of the political spectrum).

Questions Resolved in September: Part 2

• Next Greek Election Date has resolved for "Yes", because of the legislative Greek Election held in September.  I said that there was a 65% chance of another election in 2015.
• Simcoe North By-election Result has resolved for "Patrick Brown", whom I said had a 90% chance of winning.  This estimate might have been too low, given how good of a position Brown was in.
• September Greek Election has resolved for "SYRIZA", whom I said had a 65% chance of winning.  I think these odds were about right, given the somewhat inconsistent polling before the election
• Trudeau Munk Debate has resolved for "Yes", because Justin Trudeau ultimately decided to attend the Munk Debate.  I said this had a 80% chance of happening.
• Burkina Faso Coup has resolved for "Yes", as the coup leaders have surrendered.  This question had almost resolved by the time I posted it, so my 85% for estimate for "Yes" might have been too low.

Questions Resolved in September: Part 1

• Mohamed Fahmy Release has resolved for "Between April 1st and December 31,2015", which I said had a 50% chance of happening, which seems very reasonable.
• Green Leader TV Debate has resolved for "Yes", as Elizabeth May participated in the Maclean's debate in August.  I said this had a 90% chance of happening, which might have been too high, since the English consortium debate she looked likely to be invited to did not ultimately take place.
• Guatemalan President has resolved for "No".  Otto Perez Molina left office on September 3rd, which was just after the September 1st cutoff date for this question, which counts as a "No".  I said that Molina had a 85% chance of staying in office until September 1st, which was too high given how close this question was to resolving to "yes".
• Baiji Oil Complex Capture has resolved for "Yes".  Current news stories (see example here) talk about Iraqi forces trying to recapture Baiji, which suggests that the IS captured it.  The capture seems to have taken place around the time I originally posted the question; a Guardian story from May 23 suggests that the IS had captured the refinery at that time.  I said that the IS had a 50% chance of capturing the refinery, which might have been too low. 
• Canada Interest Rate September has resolved for "Unchanged Rate" which I said had a 85% chance of happening.  That number seems to be about right.