Ottawa Election Reflections

My predictions for city councillors seem to have been reasonably accurate.  In total, of the candidates who I said had the highest chance of winning, only 2.5 did not win.  In particular, Jeff Leiper won in Kitchissippi when I expected Katherine Hobbs to win.  Michael Qaqish won in Gloucester-South Nepean instead of Susan Sherring.  Jody Mitic won in Innes, when I was unsure if he or Laura Dudas was more likely to win (so I was half-wrong).  Overall, I think I was a bit underconfident in my predictions; I could have given higher percentages for the candidates I thought would win.
Going through ward-by-ward

• Mayoral Race: Jim Watson won solidly, as expected.
• Ward 1 Orléans: Bob Monette solidly as expected.
• Ward 2 Innes: Jody Mitic won by a larger margin then I might have expected.  I thought this race might be closer.  Also, I may have overweighted Laura Dudas and some of the minor candidates.
• Ward 3 Barrhaven: Jan Harder won solidly, as expected.
• Ward 4 Kanata North: Marianne Wilkinson won by a fair margin, about as expected.
• Ward 5 West Carleton-March: Eli El-Chantiry won by a fair margin, about as expected. Jonathan Mark did a bit better than I might have thought
• Ward 6 Stittsville: Shad Qadri won by a smaller margin than I would have guessed
• Ward 7 Bay: Mark Taylor won a fairly close race, about as expected
• Ward 8 College: Rick Chiarelli won solidly, as expected
• Ward 9 Knoxdale-Merivale: Keith Egli won solidly, as expected
• Ward 10 Gloucester-Southgate: Diane Deans won by an even larger margin than last time. I may have been underconfident here.
• Ward 11 Beacon Hill-Cyrville: Tim Tierney won solidly, as expected. I overestimated Francesca D’Ambrosio, who didn't even finish second.
• Ward 12 Rideau-Vanier: Mathieu Fleury won by a larger margin than I expected.
• Ward 13 Rideau-Rockcliffe: Tobi Nussbaum won by a larger margin than I expected (especially over Peter Clark). I may have been underconfident here.
• Ward 14 Somerset: Catherine McKenney won by about the margin expected. Martin Canning, who didn't put up any signs, placed third.
• Ward 15 Kitchissippi: Jeff Leiper won by a large margin. I am not so much surprised by the fact that he won as I am by the margin he won by.
• Ward 16 River: Riley Brockington won by a fair margin. I may have been underconfident here, and given too much weight to the minor candidates.
• Ward 17 Capital: David Chernushenko won solidly, as expected.
• Ward 18 Alta Vista: Jean Cloutier won by a fair margin, about as expected.
• Ward 19 Cumberland: Stephen Blais won solidly, as expected
• Ward 20 Osgoode: George Darouze won by a fairly small margin. My biggest mistake was underestimating the chances of George Wright, who finished second, despite not even being on my list of candidates with an appreciable chance of winning.
• Ward 21 Rideau-Goulbourn: Scott Moffatt won by a fair margin, as expected.
• Ward 22 Gloucester-South Nepean: Michael Qaqish won by a fair margin. I may have miscalled this race; Susan Sherring, who I though would win, finished third.
• Ward 23 Kanata South: Allan Hubley won by a huge margin, exactly as expected.